Universität zu Köln

Wu, Xueran, Elbern, Hendrik and Jacob, Birgit . The assessment of potential observability for joint chemical states and emissions in atmospheric modelings. Stoch. Environ. Res. Risk Assess.. NEW YORK: SPRINGER. ISSN 1436-3259

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Abstract

In predictive geophysical model systems, uncertain initial values and model parameters jointly influence the temporal evolution of the system. This renders initial-value-only optimization by traditional data assimilation methods as insufficient. However, blindly extending the optimization parameter set jeopardizes the validity of the resulting analysis because of the increase of the ill-posedness of the inversion task. Hence, it becomes important to assess the potential observability of measurement networks for model state and parameters in atmospheric modelings in advance of the optimization. In this paper, we novelly establish the dynamic model of emission rates and extend the transport-diffusion model extended by emission rates. Considering the Kalman smoother as underlying assimilation technique, we develop a quantitative assessment method to evaluate the potential observability and the sensitivity of observation networks to initial values and emission rates jointly. This benefits us to determine the optimizable parameters to observation configurations before the data assimilation procedure and make the optimization more efficiently. For high-dimensional models in practical applications, we derive an ensemble based version of the approach and give several elementary experiments for illustrations.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Wu, Xueran UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Elbern, Hendrik UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Jacob, Birgit UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-583204
DOI:	10.1007/s00477-021-02113-x
Journal or Publication Title:	Stoch. Environ. Res. Risk Assess.
Publisher:	SPRINGER
Place of Publication:	NEW YORK
ISSN:	1436-3259
Language:	English
Faculty:	Unspecified
Divisions:	Unspecified
Subjects:	no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language LOW-RANK APPROXIMATIONS; DATA ASSIMILATION; EURAD-IM; PARAMETER-ESTIMATION; INFORMATION-CONTENT; TARGETED OBSERVATIONS; KALMAN FILTER; CONFIGURATION; TRANSPORT; CONTEXT Multiple languages Engineering, Environmental; Engineering, Civil; Environmental Sciences; Statistics & Probability; Water Resources Multiple languages
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/58320