Kurtz, David M., Esfahani, Mohammad S., Scherer, Florian, Soo, Joanne, Jin, Michael C., Liu, Chih Long, Newman, Aaron M., Duehrsen, Ulrich, Huettmann, Andreas, Casasnovas, Olivier, Westin, Jason R., Ritgen, Matthais, Boettcher, Sebastian, Langerak, Anton W., Roschewski, Mark, Wilson, Wyndham H., Gaidano, Gianluca, Rossi, Davide, Bahlo, Jasmin, Hallek, Michael, Tibshirani, Robert, Diehn, Maximilian and Alizadeh, Ash A. (2019). Dynamic Risk Profiling Using Serial Tumor Biomarkers for Personalized Outcome Prediction. Cell, 178 (3). S. 699 - 733. CAMBRIDGE: CELL PRESS. ISSN 1097-4172

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Abstract

Accurate prediction of long-term outcomes remains a challenge in the care of cancer patients. Due to the difficulty of serial tumor sampling, previous prediction tools have focused on pretreatment factors. However, emerging non-invasive diagnostics have increased opportunities for serial tumor assessments. We describe the Continuous Individualized Risk Index (CIRI), a method to dynamically determine outcome probabilities for individual patients utilizing risk predictors acquired over time. Similar to win probability models in other fields, CIRI provides a real-time probability by integrating risk assessments throughout a patient's course. Applying CIRI to patients with diffuse large B cell lymphoma, we demonstrate improved outcome prediction compared to conventional risk models. We demonstrate CIRI's broader utility in analogous models of chronic lymphocytic leukemia and breast adenocarcinoma and perform a proof-of-concept analysis demonstrating how CIRI could be used to develop predictive biomarkers for therapy selection. We envision that dynamic risk assessment will facilitate personalized medicine and enable innovative therapeutic paradigms.

Item Type: Journal Article
Creators:
CreatorsEmailORCIDORCID Put Code
Kurtz, David M.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Esfahani, Mohammad S.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Scherer, FlorianUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Soo, JoanneUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Jin, Michael C.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Liu, Chih LongUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Newman, Aaron M.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Duehrsen, UlrichUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Huettmann, AndreasUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Casasnovas, OlivierUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Westin, Jason R.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Ritgen, MatthaisUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Boettcher, SebastianUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Langerak, Anton W.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Roschewski, MarkUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Wilson, Wyndham H.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Gaidano, GianlucaUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Rossi, DavideUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Bahlo, JasminUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Hallek, MichaelUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Tibshirani, RobertUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Diehn, MaximilianUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Alizadeh, Ash A.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
URN: urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-134668
DOI: 10.1016/j.cell.2019.06.011
Journal or Publication Title: Cell
Volume: 178
Number: 3
Page Range: S. 699 - 733
Date: 2019
Publisher: CELL PRESS
Place of Publication: CAMBRIDGE
ISSN: 1097-4172
Language: English
Faculty: Unspecified
Divisions: Unspecified
Subjects: no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:
KeywordsLanguage
B-CELL LYMPHOMA; INTERNATIONAL PROGNOSTIC INDEX; CHRONIC LYMPHOCYTIC-LEUKEMIA; POSITRON-EMISSION-TOMOGRAPHY; MINIMAL RESIDUAL DISEASE; BREAST-CANCER; ADJUVANT CHEMOTHERAPY; LUNG-CANCER; OPEN-LABEL; INDEPENDENT PREDICTORMultiple languages
Biochemistry & Molecular Biology; Cell BiologyMultiple languages
Refereed: Yes
URI: http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/13466

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