Universität zu Köln

Rouzine, Igor M. and Rozhnova, Ganna ORCID: 0000-0002-6725-7359 (2018). Antigenic evolution of viruses in host populations. PLoS Pathog., 14 (9). SAN FRANCISCO: PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE. ISSN 1553-7374

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Abstract

To escape immune recognition in previously infected hosts, viruses evolve genetically in immunologically important regions. The host's immune system responds by generating new memory cells recognizing the mutated viral strains. Despite recent advances in data collection and analysis, it remains conceptually unclear how epidemiology, immune response, and evolutionary factors interact to produce the observed speed of evolution and the incidence of infection. Here we establish a general and simple relationship between long-term cross-immunity, genetic diversity, speed of evolution, and incidence. We develop an analytic method fusing the standard epidemiological susceptible-infected-recovered approach and the modern virus evolution theory. The model includes the factors of strain selection due to immune memory cells, random genetic drift, and clonal interference effects. We predict that the distribution of recovered individuals in memory serotypes creates a moving fitness landscape for the circulating strains which drives antigenic escape. The fitness slope (effective selection coefficient) is proportional to the reproductive number in the absence of immunity R-0 and inversely proportional to the cross-immunity distance a, defined as the genetic distance of a virus strain from a previously infecting strain conferring 50% decrease in infection probability. Analysis predicts that the evolution rate increases linearly with the fitness slope and logarithmically with the genomic mutation rate and the host population size. Fitting our analytic model to data obtained for influenza A H3N2 and H1N1, we predict the annual infection incidence within a previously estimated range, (4-7)%, and the antigenic mutation rate of U-b = (5 - 8). 10(-4) per transmission event per genome. Our prediction of the cross-immunity distance of a = (14 - 15) aminoacid substitutions agrees with independent data for equine influenza.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Rouzine, Igor M. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Rozhnova, Ganna UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0002-6725-7359 UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-174128
DOI:	10.1371/journal.ppat.1007291
Journal or Publication Title:	PLoS Pathog.
Volume:	14
Number:	9
Date:	2018
Publisher:	PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE
Place of Publication:	SAN FRANCISCO
ISSN:	1553-7374
Language:	English
Faculty:	Unspecified
Divisions:	Unspecified
Subjects:	no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language SEASONAL INFLUENZA-VIRUSES; RAPIDLY ADAPTING POPULATIONS; ASEXUAL EVOLUTION; INTERFERING PARTICLES; BENEFICIAL MUTATIONS; COADAPTIVE STABILITY; TRAVELING-WAVES; DYNAMICS; SELECTION; MODEL Multiple languages Microbiology; Parasitology; Virology Multiple languages
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/17412