Universität zu Köln

Dangendorf, Soenke, Arns, Arne, Pinto, Joaquim G., Ludwig, Patrick ORCID: 0000-0003-3655-7890 and Jensen, Juergen (2016). The exceptional influence of storm 'Xaver' on design water levels in the German Bight. Environ. Res. Lett., 11 (5). BRISTOL: IOP PUBLISHING LTD. ISSN 1748-9326

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Abstract

Design water levels for coastal structures are usually estimated based on extreme value statistics. Since their robustness depends heavily on the sample size of observations, regular statistical updates are needed, especially after extreme events. Here, we demonstrate the exceptional influence of such an event based on storm 'Xaver', which caused record breaking water levels for large parts of the southwestern German North Sea coastline on 6 December 2013. We show that the water level estimates for a 1 in 200 years event increased by up to 40 cm due to the update after 'Xaver', a value twice as large as the estimated regional sea level rise for the entire 20th century. However, a thorough analysis of different independent meteorological (winds and pressure) and oceanographic components (tides, surges, mean sea level (MSL) anomalies) driving the event reveals that their observed combination does not yet represent the physically possible worst case scenario. Neither tides, nor surges nor MSL anomalies were at their observational maximum, suggesting that there is a realistic risk of a storm like 'Xaver' to cause even higher extreme water levels by a few decimetres under current climate conditions. Our results question purely statistical design approaches of coastal structures, which neglect the physical boundary conditions of individual extreme events.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Dangendorf, Soenke UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Arns, Arne UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Pinto, Joaquim G. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Ludwig, Patrick UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0003-3655-7890 UNSPECIFIED Jensen, Juergen UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-277574
DOI:	10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/054001
Journal or Publication Title:	Environ. Res. Lett.
Volume:	11
Number:	5
Date:	2016
Publisher:	IOP PUBLISHING LTD
Place of Publication:	BRISTOL
ISSN:	1748-9326
Language:	English
Faculty:	Unspecified
Divisions:	Unspecified
Subjects:	no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language SURGE EVENT; SEA; RISE Multiple languages Environmental Sciences; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences Multiple languages
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/27757