Universität zu Köln

Moemken, Julia ORCID: 0000-0002-9432-0202, Reyers, Mark, Buldmann, Benjamin and Pinto, Joaquim G. (2016). Decadal predictability of regional scale wind speed and wind energy potentials over Central Europe. Tellus Ser. A-Dyn. Meteorol. Oceanol., 68. ABINGDON: TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD. ISSN 1600-0870

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Abstract

Decadal predictions on timescales from one year to one decade are gaining importance since this time frame falls within the planning horizon of politics, economy and society. The present study examines the decadal predictability of regional wind speed and wind energy potentials in three generations of the MiKlip ('Mittelfristige Klimaprognosen') decadal prediction system. The system is based on the global Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), and the three generations differ primarily in the ocean initialisation. Ensembles of uninitialised historical and yearly initialised hindcast experiments are used to assess the forecast skill for 10 m wind speeds and wind energy output (Eout) over Central Europe with lead times from one year to one decade. With this aim, a statistical-dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach is used for the regionalisation. Its added value is evaluated by comparison of skill scores for MPI-ESM large-scale wind speeds and SDD-simulated regional wind speeds. All three MPI-ESM ensemble generations show some forecast skill for annual mean wind speed and Eout over Central Europe on yearly and multi-yearly time scales. This forecast skill is mostly limited to the first years after initialisation. Differences between the three ensemble generations are generally small. The regionalisation preserves and sometimes increases the forecast skills of the global runs but results depend on lead time and ensemble generation. Moreover, regionalisation often improves the ensemble spread. Seasonal Eout skills are generally lower than for annual means. Skill scores are lowest during summer and persist longest in autumn. A large-scale westerly weather type with strong pressure gradients over Central Europe is identified as potential source of the skill for wind energy potentials, showing a similar forecast skill and a high correlation with Eout anomalies. These results are promising towards the establishment of a decadal prediction system for wind energy applications over Central Europe.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Moemken, Julia UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0002-9432-0202 UNSPECIFIED Reyers, Mark UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Buldmann, Benjamin UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Pinto, Joaquim G. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-293493
DOI:	10.3402/tellusa.v68.29199
Journal or Publication Title:	Tellus Ser. A-Dyn. Meteorol. Oceanol.
Volume:	68
Date:	2016
Publisher:	TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
Place of Publication:	ABINGDON
ISSN:	1600-0870
Language:	English
Faculty:	Unspecified
Divisions:	Unspecified
Subjects:	no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language CLIMATE-CHANGE; POWER-GENERATION; ENSEMBLE; PREDICTION; MODEL; CMIP5; PERFORMANCE; IMPACTS; SKILL Multiple languages Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences; Oceanography Multiple languages
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/29349