Universität zu Köln

Berk, Istemi ORCID: 0000-0003-3507-2293 and Cam, Eren (2020). The shift in global crude oil market structure: A model-based analysis of the period 2013-2017. Energy Policy, 142. OXFORD: ELSEVIER SCI LTD. ISSN 1873-6777

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Abstract

This paper analyzes the recent developments in the global oil market, investigating how the 2014-2016 price collapse and the following OPEC+ agreement affected the crude oil market structure and the behavior of major suppliers. To this end, we develop a partial equilibrium model with a spatial structure for the global crude oil market and simulate the market for the period between 2013 and 2017 under different market structure setups. The simulation results reveal that, although the oligopolistic market structures fit overall well to the realized market outcomes, they are not successful at explaining the low prices during 2015 and 2016, which instead are closer to estimated competitive levels. We further suggest that from 2014 onward, the market power potential of major suppliers has shrunk considerably, supporting the view that the market has become more competitive. We also analyze the Saudi Arabia- and Russia-led OPEC+ agreement, and find that planned production cuts in 2017, particularly of Saudi Arabia and Russia, were below the levels of estimated non-competitive market structure setups.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Berk, Istemi UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0003-3507-2293 UNSPECIFIED Cam, Eren UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-328571
DOI:	10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111497
Journal or Publication Title:	Energy Policy
Volume:	142
Date:	2020
Publisher:	ELSEVIER SCI LTD
Place of Publication:	OXFORD
ISSN:	1873-6777
Language:	English
Faculty:	Unspecified
Divisions:	Unspecified
Subjects:	no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language OPEC; PRICE; CARTEL; COAL; OLIGOPOLY; POLICY; BEHAVIOR; DECLINE; DEMAND Multiple languages Economics; Energy & Fuels; Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies Multiple languages
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/32857