Universität zu Köln

Fiedler, Klaus and Unkelbach, Christian ORCID: 0000-0002-3793-6246 (2014). Regressive Judgment: Implications of a Universal Property of the Empirical World. Curr. Dir. Psychol., 23 (5). 361 - 368. THOUSAND OAKS: SAGE PUBLICATIONS INC. ISSN 1467-8721

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Abstract

In the context of research on human judgment, regression is commonly treated as an artifact or an unwanted consequence of ill-controlled research designs. We argue that this negative image is undeserved. Regression affords not only an enlightening statistical construct but also a theoretical construct that can inspire novel research. It offers alternative accounts for a variety of well-known judgment biases, and it has inspired novel predictions of previously unknown biases. While all judgments that are less than perfectly correlated with a conditional variable must be regressive, systematic biases arise when different judgment targets are subject to unequally strong regression effects. This occurs when the information given about different targets varies in statistical uncertainty or extremity, the two determinants of regression. We illustrate the explanatory power of the regression construct for judgment biases in three paradigms: frequency estimations, performance evaluations, and illusory correlations. Because regression is a universal property of the empirical world, explanations of biases in terms of cognitive or motivational biases are insufficient and incomplete if the impact of regression is not taken into account.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Fiedler, Klaus UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Unkelbach, Christian UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0002-3793-6246 UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-427889
DOI:	10.1177/0963721414546330
Journal or Publication Title:	Curr. Dir. Psychol.
Volume:	23
Number:	5
Page Range:	361 - 368
Date:	2014
Publisher:	SAGE PUBLICATIONS INC
Place of Publication:	THOUSAND OAKS
ISSN:	1467-8721
Language:	English
Faculty:	Faculty of Human Sciences Faculty of Management, Economy and Social Sciences
Divisions:	Faculty of Human Sciences > Department Psychologie Center of Excellence C-SEB
Subjects:	Psychology
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language SIMULATED CLASSROOM; INFORMATION; BIASES; OVERCONFIDENCE; SUBADDITIVITY; ACCOUNT Multiple languages Psychology, Multidisciplinary Multiple languages
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/42788