Universität zu Köln

Pucker, Oliver (2013). Information processing in financial markets. Three essays on equity analysts. PhD thesis, Universität zu Köln.

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Abstract

This thesis covers three broad research questions: The first paper (chapter 2) “The Good, The Bad, and The Lucky: Projected Earnings Accuracy and Profitability of Stock Recommendations” explores cross-sectional differences among analysts regarding the accuracy of their earnings forecasts and the investment value of their stock recommendations. It focuses on the question whether some analysts add more value in the investment decision process than others and how these analysts can be identified. The second paper (chapter 3) “Sell Side Recommendations during Booms and Busts” switches the focus from the cross-section to the time series. It examines the profitability of analyst stock recommendations across the business cycle. In particular, it studies how the information content of stock recommendations as well as the initial investor reaction depend on the business cycle. The third paper (chapter 4) “Do Aggregate Company Outlooks have Macroeconomic Content?” addresses the question whether aggregated analyst forecasts have predictive power for overall economic developments. The major difference to the previous two chapters is that analyst outputs are studied on an aggregated basis to analyze their macroeconomic content. A new application of analyst recommendations is proposed which mimics a survey among analysts about the overall future development of all companies covered by them.

Item Type:	Thesis (PhD thesis)
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Pucker, Oliver pucker@wiso.uni-koeln.de UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED
Corporate Creators:	Universität zu Köln
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-53008
Date:	20 June 2013
Language:	English
Faculty:	Faculty of Management, Economy and Social Sciences
Divisions:	Ehemalige Fakultäten, Institute, Seminare > Faculty of Management, Economy and Social Sciences > no entry
Subjects:	Management and auxiliary services
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language equity analysts, portfolio management, recommendation profitability, earnings forecast persistence English
Date of oral exam:	27 August 2013
Referee:	Name Academic Title Hess, Dieter Univ.-Prof. Dr. Kempf, Alexander Univ.-Prof. Dr. Hartmann-Wendels, Thomas Univ.-Prof. Dr.
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/5300