Universität zu Köln

Reyers, Mark, Feldmann, Hendrik ORCID: 0000-0001-6987-7351, Mieruch, Sebastian, Pinto, Joaquim G., Uhlig, Marianne, Ahrens, Bodo ORCID: 0000-0002-6452-3180, Frueh, Barbara, Modali, Kameswarrao, Laube, Natalie, Moemken, Julia ORCID: 0000-0002-9432-0202, Mueller, Wolfgang, Schaedler, Gerd and Kottmeier, Christoph (2019). Development and prospects of the regional MiKlip decadal prediction system over Europe: predictive skill, added value of regionalization, and ensemble size dependency. Earth Syst. Dynam., 10 (1). S. 171 - 188. GOTTINGEN: COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH. ISSN 2190-4987

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Abstract

The current state of development and the prospects of the regional MiKlip decadal prediction system for Europe are analysed. The MiKlip regional system consists of two 10-member hindcast ensembles computed with the global coupled model MPI-ESM-LR downscaled for the European region with COSMO-CLM to a horizontal resolution of 0.22 degrees (similar to 25 km). Prediction skills are computed for temperature, precipitation, and wind speed using E-OBS and an ERA-Interim-driven COSMO-CLM simulation as verification datasets. Focus is given to the eight European PRUDENCE regions and to lead years 1-5 after initialization. Evidence of the general potential for regional decadal predictability for all three variables is provided. For example, the initialized hindcasts outperform the uninitialized historical runs for some key regions in Europe, particularly in southern Europe. However, forecast skill is not detected in all cases, but it depends on the variable, the region, and the hindcast generation. A comparison of the downscaled hindcasts with the global MPI-ESM-LR runs reveals that the MiKlip prediction system may distinctly benefit from regionalization, in particular for parts of southern Europe and for Scandinavia. The forecast accuracy of the MiKlip ensemble is systematically enhanced when the ensemble size is increased stepwise, and 10 members is found to be suitable for decadal predictions. This result is valid for all variables and European regions in both the global and regional MiKlip ensemble. The present results are encouraging for the development of a regional decadal prediction system.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Reyers, Mark UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Feldmann, Hendrik UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0001-6987-7351 UNSPECIFIED Mieruch, Sebastian UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Pinto, Joaquim G. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Uhlig, Marianne UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Ahrens, Bodo UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0002-6452-3180 UNSPECIFIED Frueh, Barbara UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Modali, Kameswarrao UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Laube, Natalie UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Moemken, Julia UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0002-9432-0202 UNSPECIFIED Mueller, Wolfgang UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Schaedler, Gerd UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Kottmeier, Christoph UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-153543
DOI:	10.5194/esd-10-171-2019
Journal or Publication Title:	Earth Syst. Dynam.
Volume:	10
Number:	1
Page Range:	S. 171 - 188
Date:	2019
Publisher:	COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
Place of Publication:	GOTTINGEN
ISSN:	2190-4987
Language:	English
Faculty:	Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences
Divisions:	Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences > Department of Geosciences > Institute for Geophysics and Meteorology
Subjects:	no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language OCEAN; RESOLUTION; IMPACT; PRECIPITATION; PERFORMANCE Multiple languages Geosciences, Multidisciplinary Multiple languages
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/15354