Universität zu Köln

Ferner, Jessica, Schmidtlein, Sebastian ORCID: 0000-0003-1888-1865, Guuroh, Reginald T., Lopatin, Javier ORCID: 0000-0002-5540-7428 and Linstaedter, Anj A. (2018). Disentangling effects of climate and land-use change on West African drylands' forage supply. Glob. Environ. Change-Human Policy Dimens., 53. S. 24 - 39. OXFORD: ELSEVIER SCI LTD. ISSN 1872-9495

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Abstract

Livestock rearing is the most important agricultural activity in global drylands, making forage supply an essential ecosystem service (ES). Most drylands are expected to experience increasing levels of climatic aridity and land-use pressure in the future. As few studies account for combined effects of these global change drivers, we still have a limited understanding of how these drivers jointly shape forage supply. Here, the concept of social ecological systems (SESs) is useful, as it helps to formalize the complex interrelationships of drivers. Taking advantage of steep gradients of climatic aridity and land-use pressure in West Africa, a crossed space-for-time substitution was applied to capture combined effects of climate and land-use change on forage supply. We have operationalized the SES concept via structural equation modelling, and analysed how drivers directly or indirectly affected forage quantity, quality and their integrated proxy (metabolisable energy yield). Results demonstrate that contemporary dryland SESs are mainly controlled by land-use, which has often been used as a proxy for other variables, such as climatic aridity. Aridity was also directly linked to a higher risk of vegetation degradation, indicating that future drylands will be less resilient to grazing pressures. The importance of land use drivers for ES provision implies that sustainable grazing management could potentially mitigate detrimental climate change effects. However, model effects mediated by intermediate variables, such as aridity, short-term vegetation dynamics, and weather fluctuations, make it extremely difficult to predict climate change effects on ESs. Integrating structural equation modelling into the well-defined SES concept is thus highly useful to disentangle complex interdependencies of global change drivers in dryland rangelands, and to analyze drivers' direct and indirect effects on ESs. Our novel approach can thus foster a deeper understanding of patterns and mechanisms driving ecosystem service supply in drylands, which is essential for establishing sustainable management under conditions of global change.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Ferner, Jessica UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Schmidtlein, Sebastian UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0003-1888-1865 UNSPECIFIED Guuroh, Reginald T. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Lopatin, Javier UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0002-5540-7428 UNSPECIFIED Linstaedter, Anj A. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-166476
DOI:	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.08.007
Journal or Publication Title:	Glob. Environ. Change-Human Policy Dimens.
Volume:	53
Page Range:	S. 24 - 39
Date:	2018
Publisher:	ELSEVIER SCI LTD
Place of Publication:	OXFORD
ISSN:	1872-9495
Language:	English
Faculty:	Unspecified
Divisions:	Unspecified
Subjects:	no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language GLOBAL-CHANGE; BURKINA-FASO; DEGRADATION; LIVESTOCK; MANAGEMENT; SYSTEMS; SOIL; BIODIVERSITY; VARIABILITY; VEGETATION Multiple languages Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies; Geography Multiple languages
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/16647