Universität zu Köln

Hagg, Wilfried ORCID: 0000-0002-0554-1936, Mayr, Elisabeth, Mannig, Birgit, Reyers, Mark, Schubert, David, Pinto, Joaquim G. ORCID: 0000-0002-8865-1769, Peters, Juliane, Pieczonka, Tino, Juen, Martin, Bolch, Tobias ORCID: 0000-0002-8201-5059, Paeth, Heiko and Mayer, Christoph (2018). Future Climate Change and Its Impact on Runoff Generation from the Debris-Covered Inylchek Glaciers, Central Tian Shan, Kyrgyzstan. Water, 10 (11). BASEL: MDPI. ISSN 2073-4441

Full text not available from this repository.

Abstract

The heavily debris-covered Inylchek glaciers in the central Tian Shan are the largest glacier system in the Tarim catchment. It is assumed that almost 50% of the discharge of Tarim River are provided by glaciers. For this reason, climatic changes, and thus changes in glacier mass balance and glacier discharge are of high impact for the whole region. In this study, a conceptual hydrological model able to incorporate discharge from debris-covered glacier areas is presented. To simulate glacier melt and subsequent runoff in the past (1970/1971-1999/2000) and future (2070/2071-2099/2100), meteorological input data were generated based on ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 global climate model projections. The hydrological model HBV-LMU was calibrated by an automatic calibration algorithm using runoff and snow cover information as objective functions. Manual fine-tuning was performed to avoid unrealistic results for glacier mass balance. The simulations show that annual runoff sums will increase significantly under future climate conditions. A sensitivity analysis revealed that total runoff does not decrease until the glacier area is reduced by 43%. Ice melt is the major runoff source in the recent past, and its contribution will even increase in the coming decades. Seasonal changes reveal a trend towards enhanced melt in spring, but a change from a glacial-nival to a nival-pluvial runoff regime will not be reached until the end of this century.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Hagg, Wilfried UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0002-0554-1936 UNSPECIFIED Mayr, Elisabeth UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Mannig, Birgit UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Reyers, Mark UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Schubert, David UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Pinto, Joaquim G. UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0002-8865-1769 UNSPECIFIED Peters, Juliane UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Pieczonka, Tino UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Juen, Martin UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Bolch, Tobias UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0002-8201-5059 UNSPECIFIED Paeth, Heiko UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Mayer, Christoph UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-167421
DOI:	10.3390/w10111513
Journal or Publication Title:	Water
Volume:	10
Number:	11
Date:	2018
Publisher:	MDPI
Place of Publication:	BASEL
ISSN:	2073-4441
Language:	English
Faculty:	Unspecified
Divisions:	Unspecified
Subjects:	no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language TARIM RIVER-BASIN; MONT-BLANC MASSIF; TIEN-SHAN; SNOW COVER; HYDROLOGICAL MODEL; WATER-RESOURCES; NEPAL HIMALAYA; AUTOMATIC CALIBRATION; SUPRAGLACIAL LAKES; KARAKORAM-HIMALAYA Multiple languages Water Resources Multiple languages
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/16742