Universität zu Köln

Moemken, Julia ORCID: 0000-0002-9432-0202, Reyers, Mark ORCID: 0000-0001-7085-9345, Feldmann, Hendrik ORCID: 0000-0001-6987-7351 and Pinto, Joaquim G. (2018). Future Changes of Wind Speed and Wind Energy Potentials in EURO-CORDEX Ensemble Simulations. J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 123 (12). S. 6373 - 6390. WASHINGTON: AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION. ISSN 2169-8996

Full text not available from this repository.

Abstract

Renewable energy production is strongly influenced by weather and climate. Regional climate projections can be useful to quantify climate change impacts on renewable energies. With this aim, we analyze future changes of wind speed and wind energy potentials using a multimodel ensemble of EURO-CORDEX simulations at 12km and three-hourly resolution, considering nine different global and regional climate model chains. A comparison between modeled historical 10m wind speeds and ERA-Interim-driven evaluation runs for the same regional climate models uncovers some substantial model biases. The bias-corrected 10m wind speeds are extrapolated to the hub height of a wind turbine to derive gridded wind energy output (Eout). The ensemble mean responses project only small changes of mean annual and winter Eout for large parts of Europe in future decades, but a considerable decrease for summer Eout. In terms of variability, increasing intraannual and interdaily variabilities are projected for large parts of northern, central, and eastern Europe. While the ensemble spread is quite large for interdaily variability, results are more robust for intraannual variability. With respect to wind speed characteristics relevant for wind energy production, a robust increase in the occurrence of low wind speeds (<3m/s) is detected. Due to a combination of higher annual mean Eout and lower intraannual variability, climate change could be beneficial for regions like Baltic and Aegean Sea. For large parts of Germany, France, and Iberia, a lower mean Eout and increased intraannual variability may imply larger temporal/spatial fluctuations in future wind energy production and therefore a more challenging wind energy management.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Moemken, Julia UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0002-9432-0202 UNSPECIFIED Reyers, Mark UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0001-7085-9345 UNSPECIFIED Feldmann, Hendrik UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0001-6987-7351 UNSPECIFIED Pinto, Joaquim G. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-182526
DOI:	10.1029/2018JD028473
Journal or Publication Title:	J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos.
Volume:	123
Number:	12
Page Range:	S. 6373 - 6390
Date:	2018
Publisher:	AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
Place of Publication:	WASHINGTON
ISSN:	2169-8996
Language:	English
Faculty:	Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences
Divisions:	Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences > Department of Geosciences > Institute for Geophysics and Meteorology
Subjects:	no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language CLIMATE-CHANGE PROJECTIONS; MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE; POWER-GENERATION; CHANGE IMPACTS; GREAT-BRITAIN; PRECIPITATION; PERFORMANCE; ELECTRICITY; SYSTEM; CMIP5 Multiple languages Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences Multiple languages
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/18252