Universität zu Köln

Schubert, David, van der Linden, Roderick ORCID: 0000-0002-7364-323X, Fink, Andreas H. ORCID: 0000-0002-5840-2120, Katzfey, Jack, Massmeyer, Klaus and Pinto, Joaquim G. (2017). Climate Projections for Hydrological Modeling in Southern Vietnam. Hydrol. Wasserbewirtsch., 61 (6). S. 383 - 397. KOBLENZ: BUNDESANSTALT GEWASSERKUNDE-BFG. ISSN 1439-1783

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Abstract

Within the scope of the EWATEC-COAST (Environmental and Water Protection Technologies of Coastal Zones in Vietnam) project, spatially and temporally highly resolved meteorological data for recent (1986-2005) and projected (2046-2065) climate conditions were provided for climate impact modeling of ground and surface water for the Thi Vai catchment in southern Vietnam. For this purpose, temperature and precipitation fields of the regional climate model CCAM (Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model) were used. For both time periods, there were six realizations of CCAM available, each of which was driven by a different global circulation model. The projected climate for the middle of the 21st century was examined for the scenarios of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. The RCP8.5 scenario assumes the strongest radiative forcing of 8.5 W m(-2) at the end of the 21st century when compared to the preindustrial level in the middle of the 19th century. Due to systematic errors in the CCAM, a comprehensive bias correction on the ensemble mean of the six realizations was carried out using station observations of daily temperatures and rainfall amounts. While a linear regression approach was conducted for temperature data, a double Quantile Mapping approach was used for precipitation data. It was demonstrated that the bias correction significantly improved the ensemble mean temperature and precipitation distributions. Among other factors, the onset of the southwest monsoon and thus the beginning of the rainy season in South Vietnam was in good agreement with the measurements. The climate change signal for both scenarios was determined using the bias corrected fields of the ensemble mean temperature and precipitation. On the basis of the RCP8.5 scenario, a temperature increase of up to +2 degrees C is projected for the period 2046 - 2065. While a precipitation decrease is projected in the north of the Thi Vai area, an increase is shown in both scenarios in coastal areas. Furthermore, it was found that extreme rates of precipitation amounts do not increase in either scenarios, but that their year-to-year variability does. The bias corrected climate model data for the recent climate and for the period 2046 - 2065 according to the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios was made available for follow-up hydrological modeling studies.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Schubert, David UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED van der Linden, Roderick UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0002-7364-323X UNSPECIFIED Fink, Andreas H. UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0002-5840-2120 UNSPECIFIED Katzfey, Jack UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Massmeyer, Klaus UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Pinto, Joaquim G. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-210158
DOI:	10.5675/HyWa_2017,6_2
Journal or Publication Title:	Hydrol. Wasserbewirtsch.
Volume:	61
Number:	6
Page Range:	S. 383 - 397
Date:	2017
Publisher:	BUNDESANSTALT GEWASSERKUNDE-BFG
Place of Publication:	KOBLENZ
ISSN:	1439-1783
Language:	German
Faculty:	Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences
Divisions:	Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences > Department of Geosciences > Institute for Geophysics and Meteorology
Subjects:	no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language REGIONAL CLIMATE; PRECIPITATION; TEMPERATURE; EXTREMES; SIMULATIONS Multiple languages Water Resources Multiple languages
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/21015