Universität zu Köln

Wohland, Jan ORCID: 0000-0001-8336-0009, Reyers, Mark, Weber, Juliane and Witthaut, Dirk ORCID: 0000-0002-3623-5341 (2017). More homogeneous wind conditions under strong climate change decrease the potential for inter-state balancing of electricity in Europe. Earth Syst. Dynam., 8 (4). S. 1047 - 1061. GOTTINGEN: COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH. ISSN 2190-4987

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Abstract

Limiting anthropogenic climate change requires the fast decarbonization of the electricity system. Renewable electricity generation is determined by the weather and is hence subject to climate change. We simulate the operation of a coarse-scale fully renewable European electricity system based on downscaled high-resolution climate data from EURO-CORDEX. Following a high-emission pathway (RCP8.5), we find a robust but modest increase (up to 7 %) of backup energy in Europe through the end of the 21st century. The absolute increase in the backup energy is almost independent of potential grid expansion, leading to the paradoxical effect that relative impacts of climate change increase in a highly interconnected European system. The increase is rooted in more homogeneous wind conditions over Europe resulting in intensified simultaneous generation shortfalls. Individual country contributions to European generation shortfall increase by up to 9 TWh yr(-1), reflecting an increase of up to 4 %. Our results are strengthened by comparison with a large CMIP5 ensemble using an approach based on circulation weather types.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Wohland, Jan UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0001-8336-0009 UNSPECIFIED Reyers, Mark UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Weber, Juliane UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Witthaut, Dirk UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0002-3623-5341 UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-210830
DOI:	10.5194/esd-8-1047-2017
Journal or Publication Title:	Earth Syst. Dynam.
Volume:	8
Number:	4
Page Range:	S. 1047 - 1061
Date:	2017
Publisher:	COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
Place of Publication:	GOTTINGEN
ISSN:	2190-4987
Language:	English
Faculty:	Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences
Divisions:	Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences > Department of Physics > Institute for Theoretical Physics
Subjects:	no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language ENERGY POTENTIALS; SOLAR POWER; CHANGE IMPACTS; GENERATION; CMIP5; CIRCULATION; REANALYSIS; OUTPUT; CORDEX Multiple languages Geosciences, Multidisciplinary Multiple languages
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/21083