Universität zu Köln

Van der Linden, Roderick, Fink, Andreas H. ORCID: 0000-0002-5840-2120 and Pinto, Joaquim G. (2017). The Dynamics of an Extreme Precipitation Event in Northeastern Vietnam in 2015 and Its Predictability in the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. Weather Forecast., 32 (3). S. 1041 - 1057. BOSTON: AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC. ISSN 1520-0434

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Abstract

A record-breaking rainfall event occurred in northeastern Vietnam in late July-early August 2015. The coastal region in Quang Ninh Province was hit severely, with station rainfall sums in the range of 1000-1500 mm. The heavy rainfall led to flooding and landslides, which resulted in an estimated economic loss of $108 million (U.S. dollars) and 32 fatalities. Using a multitude of data sources and ECMWF ensemble forecasts, the synoptic-dynamic development and practical predictability of the event is investigated in detail for the 4-day period from 1200 UTC 25 July to 1200 UTC 29 July 2015, during which the major portion of the rainfall was observed. A slowly moving upper-level subtropical trough and the associated surface low in the northern Gulf of Tonkin promoted sustained moisture convergence and convection over northeastern Vietnam. The humidity was advected in a moisture transport band lying across the Indochina Peninsula and emanating from a tropical storm over the Bay of Bengal. Analyses of the ECMWF ensemble forecasts clearly showed a sudden emergence of the predictability of the extreme event at lead times of 3 days that was associated with the correct forecasts of the intensity and location of the subtropical trough in the 51 ensemble members. Thus, the Quang Ninh event is a good example in which the predictability of tropical convection arises from large-scale synoptic forcing; in the present case it was due to a tropical-extratropical interaction that has not been documented before for the region and season.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Van der Linden, Roderick UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Fink, Andreas H. UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0002-5840-2120 UNSPECIFIED Pinto, Joaquim G. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-230257
DOI:	10.1175/WAF-D-16-0142.1
Journal or Publication Title:	Weather Forecast.
Volume:	32
Number:	3
Page Range:	S. 1041 - 1057
Date:	2017
Publisher:	AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
Place of Publication:	BOSTON
ISSN:	1520-0434
Language:	English
Faculty:	Unspecified
Divisions:	Unspecified
Subjects:	no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS; GLOBAL PRECIPITATION; RAINFALL; FORECAST; IDENTIFICATION; VERIFICATION; CYCLOGENESIS; VARIABILITY; BENGAL; CHINA Multiple languages Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences Multiple languages
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/23025