Universität zu Köln

Mathias, Luca, Ermert, Volker, Kelemen, Fanni D., Ludwig, Patrick ORCID: 0000-0003-3655-7890 and Pinto, Joaquim G. (2017). Synoptic Analysis and Hindcast of an Intense Bow Echo in Western Europe: The 9 June 2014 Storm. Weather Forecast., 32 (3). S. 1121 - 1142. BOSTON: AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC. ISSN 1520-0434

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Abstract

On Pentecost Monday, 9 June 2014, a severe linearly organized mesoscale convective system (MCS) hit Belgium and western Germany. This storm was one of the most severe thunderstorms in Germany in decades. The synoptic-scale and mesoscale characteristics of this storm are analyzed based on remote sensing data and in situ measurements. Moreover, the forecast potential of the storm is evaluated using sensitivity experiments with a regional climate model. The key ingredients for the development of the Pentecost storm were the concurrent presence of low-level moisture, atmospheric conditional instability, and wind shear. The synoptic and mesoscale analysis shows that the outflow of a decaying MCS above northern France triggered the storm, which exhibited the typical features of a bow echo like a bookend vortex and a rear-inflow jet. This resulted in hurricane-force wind gusts (reaching 40 m s(-1)) along a narrow swath in the Rhine-Ruhr region leading to substantial damage. Operational numerical weather prediction models mostly failed to forecast the storm, but high-resolution regional model hindcasts enable a realistic simulation of the storm. The model experiments reveal that the development of the bow echo is particularly sensitive to the initial wind field and the lower-tropospheric moisture content. Adequate initial and boundary conditions are therefore essential for realistic numerical forecasts of such a bow echo event. It is concluded that the Pentecost storm exhibited a comparable structure and a similar intensity to observed bow echo systems in the United States.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Mathias, Luca UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Ermert, Volker UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Kelemen, Fanni D. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Ludwig, Patrick UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0003-3655-7890 UNSPECIFIED Pinto, Joaquim G. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-230260
DOI:	10.1175/WAF-D-16-0192.1
Journal or Publication Title:	Weather Forecast.
Volume:	32
Number:	3
Page Range:	S. 1121 - 1142
Date:	2017
Publisher:	AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
Place of Publication:	BOSTON
ISSN:	1520-0434
Language:	English
Faculty:	Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences
Divisions:	Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences > Department of Geosciences > Institute for Geophysics and Meteorology
Subjects:	no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION; LOW-LEVEL MESOVORTICES; LIVED SQUALL LINES; DATA ASSIMILATION; PART I; CLIMATE SIMULATIONS; PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS; CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS; DAMAGE ANALYSIS; UNITED-KINGDOM Multiple languages Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences Multiple languages
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/23026