Universität zu Köln

Puy, Arnald ORCID: 0000-0001-9469-2156, Muneepeerakul, Rachata and Balbo, Andrea L. (2017). Size and stochasticity in irrigated social-ecological systems. Sci Rep, 7. LONDON: NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP. ISSN 2045-2322

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Abstract

This paper presents a systematic study of the relation between the size of irrigation systems and the management of uncertainty. We specifically focus on studying, through a stylized theoretical model, how stochasticity in water availability and taxation interacts with the stochastic behavior of the population within irrigation systems. Our results indicate the existence of two key population thresholds for the sustainability of any irrigation system: N-c* or the critical population size required to keep the irrigation system operative, and N* or the population threshold at which the incentive to work inside the irrigation system equals the incentives to work elsewhere. Crossing N-c* irretrievably leads to system collapse. N* is the population level with a sub-optimal per capita payoff towards which irrigation systems tend to gravitate. When subjected to strong stochasticity in water availability or taxation, irrigation systems might suffer sharp population drops and irreversibly disintegrate into a system collapse, via a mechanism we dub 'collapse trap'. Our conceptual study establishes the basis for further work aiming at appraising the dynamics between size and stochasticity in irrigation systems, whose understanding is key for devising mitigation and adaptation measures to ensure their sustainability in the face of increasing and inevitable uncertainty.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Puy, Arnald UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0001-9469-2156 UNSPECIFIED Muneepeerakul, Rachata UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Balbo, Andrea L. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-236771
DOI:	10.1038/srep43943
Journal or Publication Title:	Sci Rep
Volume:	7
Date:	2017
Publisher:	NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
Place of Publication:	LONDON
ISSN:	2045-2322
Language:	English
Faculty:	Unspecified
Divisions:	Unspecified
Subjects:	no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language DEMOGRAPHIC STOCHASTICITY; RIVER-BASIN; SCALE; FERTILITY; ROBUSTNESS; AGRICULTURALISTS; INSTITUTIONS; POPULATIONS; SUBSISTENCE; BEAUTIFUL Multiple languages Multidisciplinary Sciences Multiple languages
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/23677