Universität zu Köln

Gomara, Inigo ORCID: 0000-0001-8721-0307, Rodriguez-Fonseca, Belen ORCID: 0000-0002-5261-7083, Zurita-Gotor, Pablo ORCID: 0000-0002-6873-7645, Ulbrich, Sven and Pinto, Joaquim G. (2016). Abrupt transitions in the NAO control of explosive North Atlantic cyclone development. Clim. Dyn., 47 (9-10). S. 3091 - 3112. NEW YORK: SPRINGER. ISSN 1432-0894

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Abstract

Explosive cyclones are intense extra-tropical low pressure systems featuring large deepening rates. In the Euro-Atlantic sector, they are a major source of life-threatening weather impacts due to their associated strong wind gusts, heavy precipitation and storm surges. The wintertime variability of the North Atlantic cyclonic activity is primarily modulated by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In this study, we investigate the interannual and multi-decadal variability of explosive North Atlantic cyclones using track density data from two reanalysis datasets (NCEP and ERA-40) and a control simulation of an atmosphere/ocean coupled General Circulation Model (GCM-ECHAM5/MPIOM1). The leading interannual and multi-decadal modes of variability of explosive cyclone track density are characterized by a strengthening/weakening pattern between Newfoundland and Iceland, which is mainly modulated by the NAO at both timescales. However, the NAO control of interannual cyclone variability is not stationary in time and abruptly fluctuates during periods of 20-25 years long both in NCEP and ECHAM5/MPIOM1. These transitions are accompanied by structural changes in the leading mode of explosive cyclone variability, and by decreased/enhanced baroclinicity over the sub-polar/sub-tropical North Atlantic. The influence of the ocean is apparently important for both the occurrence and persistence of such anomalous periods. In the GCM, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation appears to influence the large-scale baroclinicity and explosive cyclone development over the North Atlantic. These results permit a better understanding of explosive cyclogenesis variability at different climatic timescales and might help to improve predictions of these hazardous events.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Gomara, Inigo UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0001-8721-0307 UNSPECIFIED Rodriguez-Fonseca, Belen UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0002-5261-7083 UNSPECIFIED Zurita-Gotor, Pablo UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0002-6873-7645 UNSPECIFIED Ulbrich, Sven UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Pinto, Joaquim G. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-257670
DOI:	10.1007/s00382-016-3015-9
Journal or Publication Title:	Clim. Dyn.
Volume:	47
Number:	9-10
Page Range:	S. 3091 - 3112
Date:	2016
Publisher:	SPRINGER
Place of Publication:	NEW YORK
ISSN:	1432-0894
Language:	English
Faculty:	Unspecified
Divisions:	Unspecified
Subjects:	no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language MERIDIONAL OVERTURNING CIRCULATION; ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION; CLIMATE VARIABILITY; STORM TRACK; EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONES; CHANGING RELATIONSHIP; PART I; OSCILLATION; OCEAN; CYCLOGENESIS Multiple languages Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences Multiple languages
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/25767