Universität zu Köln

Wagner, Paul D., Bhallamudi, S. Murty, Narasimhan, Balaji ORCID: 0000-0003-2609-9320, Kantakumar, Lakshmi N. ORCID: 0000-0002-8912-3853, Sudheer, K. P., Kumar, Shamita, Schneider, Karl ORCID: 0000-0002-4381-2151 and Fiener, Peter ORCID: 0000-0001-6244-4705 (2016). Dynamic integration of land use changes in a hydrologic assessment of a rapidly developing Indian catchment. Sci. Total Environ., 539. S. 153 - 165. AMSTERDAM: ELSEVIER. ISSN 1879-1026

Full text not available from this repository.

Abstract

Rapid land use and land-cover changes strongly affect water resources. Particularly in regions that experience seasonal water scarcity, land use scenario assessments provide a valuable basis for the evaluation of possible future water shortages. The objective of this study is to dynamically integrate land use model projections with a hydrologic model to analyze potential future impacts of land use change on the water resources of a rapidly developing catchment upstream of Pune, India. For the first time projections from the urban growth and land use change model SLEUTH are employed as a dynamic input to the hydrologic model SWAT. By this means, impacts of land use changes on the water balance components are assessed for the near future (2009-2028) employing four different climate conditions (baseline, IPCC A1B, dry, wet). The land use change modeling results in an increase of urban area by +23.1% at the fringes of Pune and by +12.2% in the upper catchment, whereas agricultural land (-14.0% and -0.3%, respectively) and semi-natural area (-9.1% and -11.9%, respectively) decrease between 2009 and 2028. Under baseline climate conditions, these land use changes induce seasonal changes in the water balance components. Water yield particularly increases at the onset of monsoon (up to + 11.0 mm per month) due to increased impervious area, whereas evapotranspiration decreases in the dry season (up to -15.1 mm per month) as a result of the loss of irrigated agricultural area. As the projections are made for the near future (2009-2028) land use change impacts are similar under IPCC A1B climate conditions. Only if more extreme dry years occur, an exacerbation of the land use change impacts can be expected. Particularly in rapidly changing environments an implementation of both dynamic land use change and climate change seems favorable to assess seasonal and gradual changes in the water balance. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Wagner, Paul D. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Bhallamudi, S. Murty UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Narasimhan, Balaji UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0003-2609-9320 UNSPECIFIED Kantakumar, Lakshmi N. UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0002-8912-3853 UNSPECIFIED Sudheer, K. P. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Kumar, Shamita UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Schneider, Karl UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0002-4381-2151 UNSPECIFIED Fiener, Peter UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0001-6244-4705 UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-293650
DOI:	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.08.148
Journal or Publication Title:	Sci. Total Environ.
Volume:	539
Page Range:	S. 153 - 165
Date:	2016
Publisher:	ELSEVIER
Place of Publication:	AMSTERDAM
ISSN:	1879-1026
Language:	English
Faculty:	Unspecified
Divisions:	Unspecified
Subjects:	no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS; WATER ASSESSMENT-TOOL; RIVER-BASIN; WESTERN-GHATS; SWAT MODEL; COVER CHANGE; SCENARIOS; RUNOFF; URBANIZATION; AVAILABILITY Multiple languages Environmental Sciences Multiple languages
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/29365