Universität zu Köln

Henckes, Philipp, Frank, Christopher, Kuechler, Nils, Peter, Jakob and Wagner, Johannes (2020). Uncertainty estimation of investment planning models under high shares of renewables using reanalysis data. Energy, 208. OXFORD: PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD. ISSN 1873-6785

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Abstract

Variable renewable energy, particularly wind and solar, increasingly affects present and future energy systems. Reanalysis products are often used as a meteorological basis for subsequent energy system studies under high shares of variable renewable energy. Since reanalyses contain considerable biases, it is ex-ante unclear how they impact the results of energy system models. For that purpose, this study applies the high resolution reanalysis data set (6 km grid) to a full model chain, from the meteorological basis via power conversion to the optimal electricity system investment and dispatch, and investigates the implications of initial errors. It is shown that power conversion as well as electricity system model results are highly sensitive to these errors associated with the meteorological input data, in particular under high shares of variable renewable energy. The initial errors are observed to propagate through the model chain with at least the same magnitudes, which leads to distinct impacts on the overall configuration of the German electricity system as well as allocation effects of variable renewable energy capacities. (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Henckes, Philipp UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Frank, Christopher UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Kuechler, Nils UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Peter, Jakob UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Wagner, Johannes UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-317818
DOI:	10.1016/j.energy.2020.118207
Journal or Publication Title:	Energy
Volume:	208
Date:	2020
Publisher:	PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
Place of Publication:	OXFORD
ISSN:	1873-6785
Language:	English
Faculty:	Unspecified
Divisions:	Unspecified
Subjects:	no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language WIND; SCENARIOS; FORECAST Multiple languages Thermodynamics; Energy & Fuels Multiple languages
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/31781