Universität zu Köln

Fiedler, Stephanie, Crueger, Traute, D'Agostino, Roberta ORCID: 0000-0002-0717-6186, Peters, Karsten, Becker, Tobias, Leutwyler, David ORCID: 0000-0002-5141-1737, Paccini, Laura, Burdanowitz, Joerg, Buehler, Stefan A., Cortes, Alejandro Uribe, Dauhut, Thibaut, Dommenget, Dietmar, Fraedrich, Klaus, Jungandreas, Leonore, Maher, Nicola, Naumann, Ann Kristin, Rugenstein, Maria, Sakradzija, Mirjana, Schmidt, Hauke, Sielmann, Frank, Stephan, Claudia, Timmreck, Claudia, Zhu, Xiuhua and Stevens, Bjorn (2020). Simulated Tropical Precipitation Assessed across Three Major Phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Mon. Weather Rev., 148 (9). S. 3653 - 3681. BOSTON: AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC. ISSN 1520-0493

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Abstract

The representation of tropical precipitation is evaluated across three generations of models participating in phases 3, 5, and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Compared to state-of-the-art observations, improvements in tropical precipitation in the CMIP6 models are identified for some metrics, but we find no general improvement in tropical precipitation on different temporal and spatial scales. Our results indicate overall little changes across the CMIP phases for the summer monsoons, the double-ITCZ bias, and the diurnal cycle of tropical precipitation. We find a reduced amount of drizzle events in CMIP6, but tropical precipitation occurs still too frequently. Continuous improvements across the CMIP phases are identified for the number of consecutive dry days, for the representation of modes of variability, namely, the Madden-Julian oscillation and El Nino-Southern Oscillation, and for the trends in dry months in the twentieth century. The observed positive trend in extreme wet months is, however, not captured by any of the CMIP phases, which simulate negative trends for extremely wet months in the twentieth century. The regional biases are larger than a climate change signal one hopes to use the models to identify. Given the pace of climate change as compared to the pace of model improvements to simulate tropical precipitation, we question the past strategy of the development of the present class of global climate models as the mainstay of the scientific response to climate change. We suggest the exploration of alternative approaches such as high-resolution storm-resolving models that can offer better prospects to inform us about how tropical precipitation might change with anthropogenic warming.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Fiedler, Stephanie UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Crueger, Traute UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED D'Agostino, Roberta UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0002-0717-6186 UNSPECIFIED Peters, Karsten UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Becker, Tobias UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Leutwyler, David UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0002-5141-1737 UNSPECIFIED Paccini, Laura UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Burdanowitz, Joerg UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Buehler, Stefan A. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Cortes, Alejandro Uribe UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Dauhut, Thibaut UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Dommenget, Dietmar UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Fraedrich, Klaus UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Jungandreas, Leonore UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Maher, Nicola UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Naumann, Ann Kristin UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Rugenstein, Maria UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Sakradzija, Mirjana UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Schmidt, Hauke UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Sielmann, Frank UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Stephan, Claudia UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Timmreck, Claudia UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Zhu, Xiuhua UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Stevens, Bjorn UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-320098
DOI:	10.1175/MWR-D-19-0404.1
Journal or Publication Title:	Mon. Weather Rev.
Volume:	148
Number:	9
Page Range:	S. 3653 - 3681
Date:	2020
Publisher:	AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
Place of Publication:	BOSTON
ISSN:	1520-0493
Language:	English
Faculty:	Unspecified
Divisions:	Unspecified
Subjects:	no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language STOCHASTIC MULTICLOUD MODEL; MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION; CLIMATE MODELS; DOUBLE-ITCZ; MJO-SIMULATION; DIURNAL CYCLE; GLOBAL PRECIPITATION; SUMMER MONSOON; DUST EMISSION; INDIAN-OCEAN Multiple languages Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences Multiple languages
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/32009