Marecal, V., Peuch, V. -H., Andersson, C., Andersson, S., Arteta, J., Beekmann, M., Benedictow, A., Bergstrom, R., Bessagnet, B., Cansado, A., Cheroux, F., Colette, A., Coman, A., Curier, R. L., van der Gon, H. A. C. Denier, Drouin, A., Elbern, H., Emili, E., Engelen, R. J., Eskes, H. J., Foret, G., Friese, E., Gauss, M., Giannaros, C., Guth, J., Joly, M., Jaumouille, E., Josse, B., Kadygrov, N., Kaiser, J. W., Krajsek, K., Kuenen, J., Kumar, U., Liora, N., Lopez, E., Malherbe, L., Martinez, I., Melas, D., Meleux, F., Menut, L., Moinat, P., Morales, T., Parmentier, J., Piacentini, A., Plu, M., Poupkou, A., Queguiner, S., Robertson, L., Rouil, L., Schaap, M., Segers, A., Sofiev, M., Tarasson, L., Thomas, M., Timmermans, R., Valdebenito, A., van Velthoven, P., van Versendaal, R., Vira, J. and Ung, A. (2015). A regional air quality forecasting system over Europe: the MACC-II daily ensemble production. Geosci. Model Dev., 8 (9). S. 2777 - 2814. GOTTINGEN: COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH. ISSN 1991-9603

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Abstract

This paper describes the pre-operational analysis and forecasting system developed during MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate) and continued in the MACC-II (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate: Interim Implementation) European projects to provide air quality services for the European continent. This system is based on seven state-of-the art models developed and run in Europe (CHIMERE, EMEP, EURAD-IM, LOTOS-EUROS, MATCH, MOCAGE and SILAM). These models are used to calculate multi-model ensemble products. The paper gives an overall picture of its status at the end of MACCII (summer 2014) and analyses the performance of the multi-model ensemble. The MACC-II system provides daily 96 h forecasts with hourly outputs of 10 chemical species/aerosols (O-3, NO2, SO2, CO, PM10, PM2.5, NO, NH3, total NMVOCs (non-methane volatile organic compounds) and PAN + PAN precursors) over eight vertical levels from the surface to 5 km height. The hourly analysis at the surface is done a posteriori for the past day using a selection of representative air quality data from European monitoring stations. The performance of the system is assessed daily, weekly and every 3 months (seasonally) through statistical indicators calculated using the available representative air quality data from European monitoring stations. Results for a case study show the ability of the ensemble median to forecast regional ozone pollution events. The seasonal performances of the individual models and of the multi-model ensemble have been monitored since September 2009 for ozone, NO2 and PM10. The statistical indicators for ozone in summer 2014 show that the ensemble median gives on average the best performances compared to the seven models. There is very little degradation of the scores with the forecast day but there is a marked diurnal cycle, similarly to the individual models, that can be related partly to the prescribed diurnal variations of anthropogenic emissions in the models. During summer 2014, the diurnal ozone maximum is underestimated by the ensemble median by about 4 mu g m(-3) on average. Locally, during the studied ozone episodes, the maxima from the ensemble median are often lower than observations by 30-50 mu g m(-3). Overall, ozone scores are generally good with average values for the normalised indicators of 0.14 for the modified normalised mean bias and of 0.30 for the fractional gross error. Tests have also shown that the ensemble median is robust to reduction of ensemble size by one, that is, if predictions are unavailable from one model. Scores are also discussed for PM10 for winter 2013-1014. There is an underestimation of most models leading the ensemble median to a mean bias of 4.5 mu g m(-3). The ensemble median fractional gross error is larger for PM10 (similar to 0.52) than for ozone and the correlation is lower (similar to 0.35 for PM10 and similar to 0.54 for ozone). This is related to a larger spread of the seven model scores for PM10 than for ozone linked to different levels of complexity of aerosol representation in the individual models. In parallel, a scientific analysis of the results of the seven models and of the ensemble is also done over the Mediterranean area because of the specificity of its meteorology and emissions. The system is robust in terms of the production availability. Major efforts have been done in MACC-II towards the operationalisation of all its components. Foreseen developments and research for improving its performances are discussed in the conclusion.

Item Type: Journal Article
Creators:
CreatorsEmailORCIDORCID Put Code
Marecal, V.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Peuch, V. -H.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Andersson, C.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Andersson, S.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Arteta, J.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Beekmann, M.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Benedictow, A.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Bergstrom, R.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Bessagnet, B.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Cansado, A.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Cheroux, F.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Colette, A.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Coman, A.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Curier, R. L.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
van der Gon, H. A. C. DenierUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Drouin, A.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Elbern, H.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Emili, E.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Engelen, R. J.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Eskes, H. J.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Foret, G.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Friese, E.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Gauss, M.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Giannaros, C.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Guth, J.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Joly, M.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Jaumouille, E.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Josse, B.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Kadygrov, N.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Kaiser, J. W.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Krajsek, K.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Kuenen, J.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Kumar, U.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Liora, N.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Lopez, E.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Malherbe, L.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Martinez, I.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Melas, D.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Meleux, F.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Menut, L.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Moinat, P.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Morales, T.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Parmentier, J.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Piacentini, A.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Plu, M.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Poupkou, A.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Queguiner, S.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Robertson, L.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Rouil, L.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Schaap, M.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Segers, A.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Sofiev, M.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Tarasson, L.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Thomas, M.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Timmermans, R.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Valdebenito, A.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
van Velthoven, P.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
van Versendaal, R.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Vira, J.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Ung, A.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
URN: urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-418920
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-8-2777-2015
Journal or Publication Title: Geosci. Model Dev.
Volume: 8
Number: 9
Page Range: S. 2777 - 2814
Date: 2015
Publisher: COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
Place of Publication: GOTTINGEN
ISSN: 1991-9603
Language: English
Faculty: Unspecified
Divisions: Unspecified
Subjects: no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:
KeywordsLanguage
CHEMICAL-TRANSPORT MODEL; GASEOUS DRY DEPOSITION; EMEP MSC-W; ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION; TROPOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY; PARTICULATE MATTER; OZONE SIMULATIONS; DATA ASSIMILATION; NORTH-AMERICA; EMISSION RATEMultiple languages
Geosciences, MultidisciplinaryMultiple languages
URI: http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/41892

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