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Luksza, Marta and Laessig, Michael (2014). A predictive fitness model for influenza. Nature, 507 (7490). S. 57 - 76. LONDON: NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP. ISSN 1476-4687

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Abstract

The seasonal human influenza A/H3N2 virus undergoes rapid evolution, which produces significant year-to-year sequence turnover in the population of circulating strains. Adaptive mutations respond to human immune challenge and occur primarily in antigenic epitopes, the antibody-binding domains of the viral surface protein haemagglutinin. Here we develop a fitness model for haemagglutinin that predicts the evolution of the viral population from one year to the next. Two factors are shown to determine the fitness of a strain: adaptive epitope changes and deleterious mutations outside the epitopes. We infer both fitness components for the strains circulating in a given year, using population-genetic data of all previous strains. From fitness and frequency of each strain, we predict the frequency of its descendent strains in the following year. This fitness model maps the adaptive history of influenza A and suggests a principled method for vaccine selection. Our results call for a more comprehensive epidemiology of influenza and other fast-evolving pathogens that integrates antigenic phenotypes with other viral functions coupled by genetic linkage.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Luksza, Marta UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Laessig, Michael UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-443519
DOI:	10.1038/nature13087
Journal or Publication Title:	Nature
Volume:	507
Number:	7490
Page Range:	S. 57 - 76
Date:	2014
Publisher:	NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
Place of Publication:	LONDON
ISSN:	1476-4687
Language:	English
Faculty:	Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences
Divisions:	Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences > Department of Physics > Institut für Biologische Physik
Subjects:	no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language A VIRUS; EVOLUTIONARY DYNAMICS; LINKED GLYCOSYLATION; BENEFICIAL MUTATIONS; CLONAL INTERFERENCE; SEASONAL INFLUENZA; POSITIVE SELECTION; ASEXUAL EVOLUTION; RECEPTOR-BINDING; ANTIGENIC SITES Multiple languages Multidisciplinary Sciences Multiple languages
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/44351