Universität zu Köln

Hainzl, Sebastian ORCID: 0000-0002-2875-0933, Zoeller, Gert, Brietzke, Gilbert B. and Hinzen, Klaus-G. (2013). Comparison of deterministic and stochastic earthquake simulators for fault interactions in the Lower Rhine Embayment, Germany. Geophys. J. Int., 195 (1). S. 684 - 695. OXFORD: OXFORD UNIV PRESS. ISSN 1365-246X

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Abstract

Time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment requires a stochastic description of earthquake occurrences. While short-term seismicity models are well-constrained by observations, the recurrences of characteristic on-fault earthquakes are only derived from theoretical considerations, uncertain palaeo-events or proxy data. Despite the involved uncertainties and complexity, simple statistical models for a quasi-period recurrence of on-fault events are implemented in seismic hazard assessments. To test the applicability of statistical models, such as the Brownian relaxation oscillator or the stress release model, we perform a systematic comparison with deterministic simulations based on rate- and state-dependent friction, high-resolution representations of fault systems and quasi-dynamic rupture propagation. For the specific fault network of the Lower Rhine Embayment, Germany, we run both stochastic and deterministic model simulations based on the same fault geometries and stress interactions. Our results indicate that the stochastic simulators are able to reproduce the first-order characteristics of the major earthquakes on isolated faults as well as for coupled faults with moderate stress interactions. However, we find that all tested statistical models fail to reproduce the characteristics of strongly coupled faults, because multisegment rupturing resulting from a spatiotemporally correlated stress field is underestimated in the stochastic simulators. Our results suggest that stochastic models have to be extended by multirupture probability distributions to provide more reliable results.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Hainzl, Sebastian UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0002-2875-0933 UNSPECIFIED Zoeller, Gert UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Brietzke, Gilbert B. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Hinzen, Klaus-G. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-474688
DOI:	10.1093/gji/ggt271
Journal or Publication Title:	Geophys. J. Int.
Volume:	195
Number:	1
Page Range:	S. 684 - 695
Date:	2013
Publisher:	OXFORD UNIV PRESS
Place of Publication:	OXFORD
ISSN:	1365-246X
Language:	English
Faculty:	Unspecified
Divisions:	Unspecified
Subjects:	no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language STRESS RELEASE MODEL; FRICTION Multiple languages Geochemistry & Geophysics Multiple languages
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/47468