Universität zu Köln

Grothe, Oliver and Schnieders, Julius (2011). Spatial dependence in wind and optimal wind power allocation: A copula-based analysis. Energy Policy, 39 (9). S. 4742 - 4755. OXFORD: ELSEVIER SCI LTD. ISSN 1873-6777

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Abstract

The investment decision on the placement of wind turbines is, neglecting legal formalities, mainly driven by the aim to maximize the expected annual energy production of single turbines. The result is a concentration of wind farms at locations with high average wind speed. While this strategy may be optimal for single investors maximizing their own return on investment, the resulting overall allocation of wind turbines may be unfavorable for energy suppliers and the economy because of large fluctuations in the overall wind power output. This paper investigates to what extent optimal allocation of wind farms in Germany can reduce these fluctuations. We analyze stochastic dependencies of wind speed for a large data set of German on- and offshore weather stations and find that these dependencies turn out to be highly nonlinear but constant over time. Using copula theory we determine the value at risk of energy production for given allocation sets of wind farms and derive optimal allocation plans. We find that the optimized allocation of wind farms may substantially stabilize the overall wind energy supply on daily as well as hourly frequency. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Grothe, Oliver UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Schnieders, Julius UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-490275
DOI:	10.1016/j.enpol.2011.06.052
Journal or Publication Title:	Energy Policy
Volume:	39
Number:	9
Page Range:	S. 4742 - 4755
Date:	2011
Publisher:	ELSEVIER SCI LTD
Place of Publication:	OXFORD
ISSN:	1873-6777
Language:	English
Faculty:	Unspecified
Divisions:	Unspecified
Subjects:	no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language MODEL Multiple languages Economics; Energy & Fuels; Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies Multiple languages
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/49027