Universität zu Köln

Ayyad, Saher ORCID: 0000-0001-8758-9281 and Khalifa, Muhammad (2021). Will the Eastern Nile countries be able to sustain their crop production by 2050? An outlook from water and land perspectives. Sci. Total Environ., 775. AMSTERDAM: ELSEVIER. ISSN 1879-1026

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Abstract

Securing agricultural commodities for a growing population requires a paradigm shift in agricultural thinking. An appropriate agricultural development pathway should be determined, which may include larger land extensions and water consumption or more intensive use of smaller extensions and optimized water use. This study ad-dresses this question in the Eastern Nile Basin countries (ENC), namely Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia, where such research is scarce. We utilized open-source datasets, based on relevant remote sensing products and agricultural statistics (harvested area, production, yield, and water footprint [WFP]), to understand the spatio-temporal var-iability of cropland performance. The study proposes a scenario-based approach that evaluates four development pathways towards sufficient crop production by 2050 in the ENC. While the extensification pathway suggests a continuation of the business-as-usual, i.e., same average WFP and yield values (horizontal scenario), three inten-sification pathways assume that increased efficiency can improve WFP and yield values (vertical scenarios). Re-sults show that substantial amounts of water and land could be saved by 2050 by following the vertical development pathways. Nonetheless, the three countries, especially Egypt, are expected to face enormous chal-lenges to satisfy their future demand for the main crops by 2050. Our research provides key messages to promote cooperation between the three countries by following a regional benefit-sharing approach to the challenge. The findings of the current study have deep implications on sustainable natural resources development and water and food security in such a vital and conflicted region. (C)2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Ayyad, Saher UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0001-8758-9281 UNSPECIFIED Khalifa, Muhammad UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-577167
DOI:	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145769
Journal or Publication Title:	Sci. Total Environ.
Volume:	775
Date:	2021
Publisher:	ELSEVIER
Place of Publication:	AMSTERDAM
ISSN:	1879-1026
Language:	English
Faculty:	Unspecified
Divisions:	Unspecified
Subjects:	no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language NET PRIMARY PRODUCTION; USE EFFICIENCY; YIELD GAP; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION PRODUCTS; IRRIGATION EFFICIENCY; RIVER-BASIN; CLIMATE; COOPERATION; PERFORMANCE; MANAGEMENT Multiple languages Environmental Sciences Multiple languages
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/57716