Universität zu Köln

Gredner, Thomas ORCID: 0000-0002-8897-2298, Mons, Ute, Niedermaier, Tobias, Brenner, Hermann ORCID: 0000-0002-6129-1572 and Soerjomataram, Isabelle (2021). Impact of tobacco control policies implementation on future lung cancer incidence in Europe: An international, population-based modeling study. Lancet Reg. Health-Eur., 4. AMSTERDAM: ELSEVIER. ISSN 2666-7762

Full text not available from this repository.

Abstract

Background: Despite recent trends in declining smoking rates, tobacco smoking remains the most preventable cause of cancer in Europe. We aimed to estimate numbers and proportions of future lung cancer cases that could be potentially prevented over a 20-year period if countries in Europe were to achieve a comprehensive implementation of tobacco control policies. Methods: Historical data from population-based cancer incidence (or mortality) was used to predict sex-specific lung cancer incidence for 30 European countries up to 2037. Hypothetical country-specific smoking prevalence that would be expected if countries would have achieved the highest-level implementation of tobacco control policies (defined by the maximum total score of the Tobacco Control Scale, TCS) was estimated by combining national prevalence data on current smoking and data on the status of implementation of key tobacco control policies. Resulting numbers and proportions of potentially preventable lung cancer cases were estimated taking into account latency periods between changes in smoking prevalence and excess cancer risks. Findings: In Europe, an estimated 1.65 million lung cancer cases (21.2%, 19.8% in men and 23.2% in women) could be prevented over a 20-year period with the highest-level implementation of tobacco control policies. Large variation was seen in European regions and countries reflecting the current level of tobacco control, with the largest potential for prevention in Western Europe (24.5%), Southern Europe (23.1%) and Eastern Europe (22.5%), and the lowest but still substantial potential for further prevention in Northern Europe (12.5%). In women, among whom lung cancer incidence is expected to increase, we estimated somewhat larger proportions of preventable lung cancer cases ranging from 9.9 to 33.9% as compared to men (8.6-28.5%). In the final year of study period (2037), these proportions even exceed 50% in women for some countries. Interpretation: Improved and expanded implementation of evidence-based tobacco control policies at the most comprehensive level could reduce future lung cancer incidence considerably across Europe. (C) 2021 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Gredner, Thomas UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0002-8897-2298 UNSPECIFIED Mons, Ute UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Niedermaier, Tobias UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Brenner, Hermann UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0002-6129-1572 UNSPECIFIED Soerjomataram, Isabelle UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-592965
DOI:	10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100074
Journal or Publication Title:	Lancet Reg. Health-Eur.
Volume:	4
Date:	2021
Publisher:	ELSEVIER
Place of Publication:	AMSTERDAM
ISSN:	2666-7762
Language:	English
Faculty:	Unspecified
Divisions:	Unspecified
Subjects:	no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language CIGARETTE-SMOKING PREVALENCE; FRAMEWORK CONVENTION; ASSOCIATION; COUNTRIES; MORTALITY; BENEFITS; EXAMPLE; HEALTH; SCALE Multiple languages Health Care Sciences & Services; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health Multiple languages
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/59296