Universität zu Köln

Kitanovski, Simo ORCID: 0000-0003-2909-5376, Horemheb-Rubio, Gibran, Adams, Ortwin, Gartner, Barbara, Lengauer, Thomas, Hoffmann, Daniel ORCID: 0000-0003-2973-7869 and Kaiser, Rolf (2021). Rhinovirus prevalence as indicator for efficacy of measures against SARS-CoV-2. BMC Public Health, 21 (1). LONDON: BMC. ISSN 1471-2458

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Abstract

Background Non-pharmaceutical measures to control the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) should be carefully tuned as they can impose a heavy social and economic burden. To quantify and possibly tune the efficacy of these anti-SARS-CoV-2 measures, we have devised indicators based on the abundant historic and current prevalence data from other respiratory viruses. Methods We obtained incidence data of 17 respiratory viruses from hospitalized patients and outpatients collected by 37 clinics and laboratories between 2010-2020 in Germany. With a probabilistic model for Bayes inference we quantified prevalence changes of the different viruses between months in the pre-pandemic period 2010-2019 and the corresponding months in 2020, the year of the pandemic with noninvasive measures of various degrees of stringency. Results We discovered remarkable reductions delta in rhinovirus (RV) prevalence by about 25% (95% highest density interval (HDI) [-0.35,-0.15]) in the months after the measures against SARS-CoV-2 were introduced in Germany. In the months after the measures began to ease, RV prevalence increased to low pre-pandemic levels, e.g. in August 2020 delta=-0.14 (95% HDI [-0.28,0.12]). Conclusions RV prevalence is negatively correlated with the stringency of anti-SARS-CoV-2 measures with only a short time delay. This result suggests that RV prevalence could possibly be an indicator for the efficiency for these measures. As RV is ubiquitous at higher prevalence than SARS-CoV-2 or other emerging respiratory viruses, it could reflect the efficacy of noninvasive measures better than such emerging viruses themselves with their unevenly spreading clusters.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Kitanovski, Simo UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0003-2909-5376 UNSPECIFIED Horemheb-Rubio, Gibran UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Adams, Ortwin UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Gartner, Barbara UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Lengauer, Thomas UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Hoffmann, Daniel UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0003-2973-7869 UNSPECIFIED Kaiser, Rolf UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-596195
DOI:	10.1186/s12889-021-11178-w
Journal or Publication Title:	BMC Public Health
Volume:	21
Number:	1
Date:	2021
Publisher:	BMC
Place of Publication:	LONDON
ISSN:	1471-2458
Language:	English
Faculty:	Unspecified
Divisions:	Unspecified
Subjects:	no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language COVID-19 Multiple languages Public, Environmental & Occupational Health Multiple languages
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/59619