Universität zu Köln

Werfel, Stanislas ORCID: 0000-0001-9130-0057, Jakob, Carolin E. M., Borgmann, Stefan, Schneider, Jochen, Spinner, Christoph, Schons, Maximilian, Hower, Martin, Wille, Kai ORCID: 0000-0002-7682-8563, Haselberger, Martina, Heuzeroth, Hanno, Ruthrich, Maria M., Dolff, Sebastian, Kessel, Johanna, Heemann, Uwe, Vehreschild, Joerg J., Rieg, Siegbert and Schmaderer, Christoph (2021). Development and validation of a simplified risk score for the prediction of critical COVID-19 illness in newly diagnosed patients. J. Med. Virol., 93 (12). S. 6703 - 6714. HOBOKEN: WILEY. ISSN 1096-9071

Full text not available from this repository.

Abstract

Scores to identify patients at high risk of progression of coronavirus disease (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), may become instrumental for clinical decision-making and patient management. We used patient data from the multicentre Lean European Open Survey on SARS-CoV-2-Infected Patients (LEOSS) and applied variable selection to develop a simplified scoring system to identify patients at increased risk of critical illness or death. A total of 1946 patients who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 were included in the initial analysis and assigned to derivation and validation cohorts (n = 1297 and n = 649, respectively). Stability selection from over 100 baseline predictors for the combined endpoint of progression to the critical phase or COVID-19-related death enabled the development of a simplified score consisting of five predictors: C-reactive protein (CRP), age, clinical disease phase (uncomplicated vs. complicated), serum urea, and D-dimer (abbreviated as CAPS-D score). This score yielded an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.81 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.77-0.85) in the validation cohort for predicting the combined endpoint within 7 days of diagnosis and 0.81 (95% CI: 0.77-0.85) during full follow-up. We used an additional prospective cohort of 682 patients, diagnosed largely after the first wave of the pandemic to validate the predictive accuracy of the score and observed similar results (AUC for the event within 7 days: 0.83 [95% CI: 0.78-0.87]; for full follow-up: 0.82 [95% CI: 0.78-0.86]). An easily applicable score to calculate the risk of COVID-19 progression to critical illness or death was thus established and validated.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Werfel, Stanislas UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0001-9130-0057 UNSPECIFIED Jakob, Carolin E. M. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Borgmann, Stefan UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Schneider, Jochen UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Spinner, Christoph UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Schons, Maximilian UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Hower, Martin UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Wille, Kai UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0002-7682-8563 UNSPECIFIED Haselberger, Martina UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Heuzeroth, Hanno UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Ruthrich, Maria M. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Dolff, Sebastian UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Kessel, Johanna UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Heemann, Uwe UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Vehreschild, Joerg J. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Rieg, Siegbert UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Schmaderer, Christoph UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-600561
DOI:	10.1002/jmv.27252
Journal or Publication Title:	J. Med. Virol.
Volume:	93
Number:	12
Page Range:	S. 6703 - 6714
Date:	2021
Publisher:	WILEY
Place of Publication:	HOBOKEN
ISSN:	1096-9071
Language:	English
Faculty:	Unspecified
Divisions:	Unspecified
Subjects:	no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language Virology Multiple languages
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/60056