Jones, Chris D., Hickman, Jonathan E., Rumbold, Steven T., Walton, Jeremy ORCID: 0000-0001-7372-178X, Lamboll, Robin D., Skeie, Ragnhild B., Fiedler, Stephanie, Forster, Piers M., Rogelj, Joeri ORCID: 0000-0003-2056-9061, Abe, Manabu, Botzet, Michael, Calvin, Katherine, Cassou, Christophe, Cole, Jason N. S., Davini, Paolo ORCID: 0000-0003-3389-7849, Deushi, Makoto, Dix, Martin ORCID: 0000-0002-7534-0654, Fyfe, John C., Gillett, Nathan P., Ilyina, Tatiana ORCID: 0000-0002-3475-4842, Kawamiya, Michio, Kelley, Maxwell, Kharin, Slava, Koshiro, Tsuyoshi ORCID: 0000-0003-2971-7446, Li, Hongmei ORCID: 0000-0003-2912-1837, Mackallah, Chloe ORCID: 0000-0003-4989-5530, Mueller, Wolfgang A., Nabat, Pierre, van Noije, Twan, Nolan, Paul, Ohgaito, Rumi, Olivie, Dirk, Oshima, Naga, Parodi, Jose, Reerink, Thomas J., Ren, Lili, Romanou, Anastasia, Seferian, Roland, Tang, Yongming, Timmreck, Claudia, Tjiputra, Jerry, Tourigny, Etienne ORCID: 0000-0003-4628-1461, Tsigaridis, Kostas, Wang, Hailong ORCID: 0000-0002-1994-4402, Wu, Mingxuan, Wyser, Klaus, Yang, Shuting ORCID: 0000-0002-0147-2056, Yang, Yang and Ziehn, Tilo ORCID: 0000-0001-9873-9775 (2021). The Climate Response to Emissions Reductions Due to COVID-19: Initial Results From CovidMIP. Geophys. Res. Lett., 48 (8). WASHINGTON: AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION. ISSN 1944-8007

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Abstract

Many nations responded to the corona virus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic by restricting travel and other activities during 2020, resulting in temporarily reduced emissions of CO2, other greenhouse gases and ozone and aerosol precursors. We present the initial results from a coordinated Intercomparison, CovidMIP, of Earth system model simulations which assess the impact on climate of these emissions reductions. 12 models performed multiple initial-condition ensembles to produce over 300 simulations spanning both initial condition and model structural uncertainty. We find model consensus on reduced aerosol amounts (particularly over southern and eastern Asia) and associated increases in surface shortwave radiation levels. However, any impact on near-surface temperature or rainfall during 2020-2024 is extremely small and is not detectable in this initial analysis. Regional analyses on a finer scale, and closer attention to extremes (especially linked to changes in atmospheric composition and air quality) are required to test the impact of COVID-19-related emission reductions on near-term climate.

Item Type: Journal Article
Creators:
CreatorsEmailORCIDORCID Put Code
Jones, Chris D.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Hickman, Jonathan E.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Rumbold, Steven T.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Walton, JeremyUNSPECIFIEDorcid.org/0000-0001-7372-178XUNSPECIFIED
Lamboll, Robin D.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Skeie, Ragnhild B.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Fiedler, StephanieUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Forster, Piers M.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Rogelj, JoeriUNSPECIFIEDorcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061UNSPECIFIED
Abe, ManabuUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Botzet, MichaelUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Calvin, KatherineUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Cassou, ChristopheUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Cole, Jason N. S.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Davini, PaoloUNSPECIFIEDorcid.org/0000-0003-3389-7849UNSPECIFIED
Deushi, MakotoUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Dix, MartinUNSPECIFIEDorcid.org/0000-0002-7534-0654UNSPECIFIED
Fyfe, John C.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Gillett, Nathan P.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Ilyina, TatianaUNSPECIFIEDorcid.org/0000-0002-3475-4842UNSPECIFIED
Kawamiya, MichioUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Kelley, MaxwellUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Kharin, SlavaUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Koshiro, TsuyoshiUNSPECIFIEDorcid.org/0000-0003-2971-7446UNSPECIFIED
Li, HongmeiUNSPECIFIEDorcid.org/0000-0003-2912-1837UNSPECIFIED
Mackallah, ChloeUNSPECIFIEDorcid.org/0000-0003-4989-5530UNSPECIFIED
Mueller, Wolfgang A.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Nabat, PierreUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
van Noije, TwanUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Nolan, PaulUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Ohgaito, RumiUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Olivie, DirkUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Oshima, NagaUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Parodi, JoseUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Reerink, Thomas J.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Ren, LiliUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Romanou, AnastasiaUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Seferian, RolandUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Tang, YongmingUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Timmreck, ClaudiaUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Tjiputra, JerryUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Tourigny, EtienneUNSPECIFIEDorcid.org/0000-0003-4628-1461UNSPECIFIED
Tsigaridis, KostasUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Wang, HailongUNSPECIFIEDorcid.org/0000-0002-1994-4402UNSPECIFIED
Wu, MingxuanUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Wyser, KlausUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Yang, ShutingUNSPECIFIEDorcid.org/0000-0002-0147-2056UNSPECIFIED
Yang, YangUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Ziehn, TiloUNSPECIFIEDorcid.org/0000-0001-9873-9775UNSPECIFIED
URN: urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-607346
DOI: 10.1029/2020GL091883
Journal or Publication Title: Geophys. Res. Lett.
Volume: 48
Number: 8
Date: 2021
Publisher: AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
Place of Publication: WASHINGTON
ISSN: 1944-8007
Language: English
Faculty: Unspecified
Divisions: Unspecified
Subjects: no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:
KeywordsLanguage
EARTH SYSTEM MODEL; EL-NINO; IMPACTMultiple languages
Geosciences, MultidisciplinaryMultiple languages
URI: http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/60734

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