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Goertz, Maurice and Krug, Joachim (2022). Nonlinear dynamics of an epidemic compartment model with asymptomatic infections and mitigation. J. Phys. A-Math. Theor., 55 (41). BRISTOL: IOP Publishing Ltd. ISSN 1751-8121

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Abstract

A significant proportion of the infections driving the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic are transmitted asymptomatically. Here we introduce and study a simple epidemic model with separate compartments comprising asymptomatic and symptomatic infected individuals. The linear dynamics determining the outbreak condition of the model is equivalent to a renewal theory approach with exponential waiting time distributions. Exploiting a nontrivial conservation law of the full nonlinear dynamics, we derive analytic bounds on the peak number of infections in the absence and presence of mitigation through isolation and testing. The bounds are compared to numerical solutions of the differential equations.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Goertz, Maurice UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Krug, Joachim UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-657709
DOI:	10.1088/1751-8121/ac8fc7
Journal or Publication Title:	J. Phys. A-Math. Theor.
Volume:	55
Number:	41
Date:	2022
Publisher:	IOP Publishing Ltd
Place of Publication:	BRISTOL
ISSN:	1751-8121
Language:	English
Faculty:	Unspecified
Divisions:	Unspecified
Subjects:	no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language DRUG-RESISTANCE; DISEASE; EMERGENCE Multiple languages Physics, Multidisciplinary; Physics, Mathematical Multiple languages
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/65770