Universität zu Köln

Moran-Tovar, Roberto ORCID: 0000-0002-6291-9376, Gruell, Henning, Klein, Florian ORCID: 0000-0003-1376-1792 and Laessig, Michael (2022). Stochasticity of infectious outbreaks and consequences for optimal interventions. J. Phys. A-Math. Theor., 55 (38). BRISTOL: IOP Publishing Ltd. ISSN 1751-8121

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Abstract

Global strategies to contain a pandemic, such as social distancing and protective measures, are designed to reduce the overall transmission rate between individuals. Despite such measures, essential institutions, including hospitals, schools, and food producing plants, remain focal points of local outbreaks. Here we develop a model for the stochastic infection dynamics that predicts the statistics of local outbreaks from observables of the underlying global epidemics. Specifically, we predict two key outbreak characteristics: the probability of proliferation from a first infection in the local community, and the establishment size, which is the threshold size of local infection clusters where proliferation becomes likely. We derive these results using a contact network model of communities, and we show how the proliferation probability depends on the contact degree of the first infected individual. Based on this model, we suggest surveillance protocols by which individuals are tested proportionally to their degree in the contact network. We characterize the efficacy of contact-based protocols as a function of the epidemiological and the contact network parameters, and we show numerically that such protocols outperform random testing.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Moran-Tovar, Roberto UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0002-6291-9376 UNSPECIFIED Gruell, Henning UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Klein, Florian UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0003-1376-1792 UNSPECIFIED Laessig, Michael UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-658974
DOI:	10.1088/1751-8121/ac88a6
Journal or Publication Title:	J. Phys. A-Math. Theor.
Volume:	55
Number:	38
Date:	2022
Publisher:	IOP Publishing Ltd
Place of Publication:	BRISTOL
ISSN:	1751-8121
Language:	English
Faculty:	Unspecified
Divisions:	Unspecified
Subjects:	no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language PERSONAL NETWORK; SIZE Multiple languages Physics, Multidisciplinary; Physics, Mathematical Multiple languages
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/65897