Universität zu Köln

Ruett, Johanna ORCID: 0000-0003-4732-3889, Hennes, Lena, Teubler, Jens ORCID: 0000-0002-3096-2994 and Braun, Boris ORCID: 0000-0003-3863-2153 (2022). How Compatible Are Western European Dietary Patterns to Climate Targets? Accounting for Uncertainty of Life Cycle Assessments by Applying a Probabilistic Approach. Sustainability, 14 (21). BASEL: MDPI. ISSN 2071-1050

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Abstract

The food system plays a crucial role in mitigating climate change. Even if fossil fuel emissions are halted immediately, current trends in global food systems may prevent the achieving of the Paris Agreement's climate targets. The high degree of variability and uncertainty involved in calculating diet-related greenhouse gas emissions limits the ability to evaluate reduction potentials to remain below a global warming of 1.5 or 2 degrees. This study assessed Western European dietary patterns while accounting for uncertainty and variability. An extensive literature review provided value ranges for climate impacts of animal-based foods to conduct an uncertainty analysis via Monte Carlo simulation. The resulting carbon footprints were assessed against food system-specific greenhouse gas emission thresholds. The range and absolute value of a diet carbon footprint become larger the higher the amount of products with highly varying emission values in the diet. All dietary pattern carbon footprints overshoot the 1.5 degrees threshold. The vegan, vegetarian, and diet with low animal-based food intake were predominantly below the 2 degrees threshold. Omnivorous diets with more animal-based product content trespassed them. Reducing animal-based foods is a powerful strategy to decrease emissions. However, further mitigation strategies are required to achieve climate goals.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Ruett, Johanna UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0003-4732-3889 UNSPECIFIED Hennes, Lena UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Teubler, Jens UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0002-3096-2994 UNSPECIFIED Braun, Boris UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0003-3863-2153 UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-662828
DOI:	10.3390/su142114449
Journal or Publication Title:	Sustainability
Volume:	14
Number:	21
Date:	2022
Publisher:	MDPI
Place of Publication:	BASEL
ISSN:	2071-1050
Language:	English
Faculty:	Unspecified
Divisions:	Unspecified
Subjects:	no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language GREENHOUSE-GAS EMISSIONS; CARBON FOOTPRINT; ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS; NUTRITIONAL QUALITY; FOOD CHOICES; SUPPLY CHAIN; SYSTEM; HEALTHY; MEAT; GUIDELINES Multiple languages Green & Sustainable Science & Technology; Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies Multiple languages
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/66282