Universität zu Köln

Vogel, Anissa, Seeger, Katharina ORCID: 0000-0003-0766-9818, Brill, Dominik ORCID: 0000-0001-8637-4641, Brueckner, Helmut, Soe, Khin Khin, Oo, Nay Win, Aung, Nilar, Myint, Zin Nwe and Kraas, Frauke ORCID: 0000-0002-3498-6758 (2022). Identifying Land-Use Related Potential Disaster Risk Drivers in the Ayeyarwady Delta (Myanmar) during the Last 50 Years (1974-2021) Using a Hybrid Ensemble Learning Model. Remote Sens., 14 (15). BASEL: MDPI. ISSN 2072-4292

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Abstract

Land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) dynamics significantly impact deltas, which are among the world's most valuable but also vulnerable habitats. Non-risk-oriented LULCCs can act as disaster risk drivers by increasing levels of exposure and vulnerability or by reducing capacity. Making thematically detailed long-term LULCC data available is crucial to improving understanding of those dynamics interlinked at different spatiotemporal scales. For the Ayeyarwady Delta, one of the least studied mega-deltas, such comprehensive information is still lacking. This study used 50 Landsat and Sentinel-1A images spanning five decades from 1974 to 2021 in five-year intervals. A hybrid ensemble model consisting of six machine-learning classifiers was employed to generate land-cover maps from the images, achieving accuracies of about 90%. The major identified potential risk-relevant LULCC dynamics include urban growth towards low-lying areas, mangrove deforestation, and the expansion of irrigated agricultural areas and cultivated aquatic surfaces. The novel area-wide LULCC products achieved through the analyses provide a basis to support future risk-sensitive development decisions and can be used for regionally adapted disaster risk management plans and models. Developed with freely available data and open-source software, they hold great potential to increase research activity in the Ayeyarwady Delta and will be shared upon request.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Vogel, Anissa UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Seeger, Katharina UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0003-0766-9818 UNSPECIFIED Brill, Dominik UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0001-8637-4641 UNSPECIFIED Brueckner, Helmut UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Soe, Khin Khin UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Oo, Nay Win UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Aung, Nilar UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Myint, Zin Nwe UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Kraas, Frauke UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0002-3498-6758 UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-674004
DOI:	10.3390/rs14153568
Journal or Publication Title:	Remote Sens.
Volume:	14
Number:	15
Date:	2022
Publisher:	MDPI
Place of Publication:	BASEL
ISSN:	2072-4292
Language:	English
Faculty:	Unspecified
Divisions:	Unspecified
Subjects:	no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language CYCLONE NARGIS; RIVER DELTA; IRRAWADDY; CLASSIFICATION; WATER; SUBSIDENCE; EVOLUTION; TRANSPORT; DYNAMICS; IMPACT Multiple languages Environmental Sciences; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary; Remote Sensing; Imaging Science & Photographic Technology Multiple languages
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/67400