Universität zu Köln

Chang, Lei, Baloch, Zulfiqar Ali, Saydaliev, Hayot Berk, Hyder, Mansoor and Dilanchiev, Azer ORCID: 0000-0002-9899-6621 (2022). Testing oil price volatility during Covid-19: Global economic impact. Resour. Policy, 78. OXFORD: ELSEVIER SCI LTD. ISSN 1873-7641

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Abstract

This paper is occasioned by the current events in the crude oil markets throughout the Covid pandemic time. The study analyzes the evolving nature of crude oil cost unpredictability caused by the variations that influence the crude sector throughout the current contagion. Every day's dataset is within the first month of 2020 and December 30, 2021 were measured by applying VAR and GARCH models. The results corroborate that the current contagion has adverse effects on the crude sector, primarily in two ways. It resulted in the headwinds for demand and cut international demand for crude oil, increasing uncertainty for major advanced and developing nations. Next, it resulted in output headwinds as the pandemic caused hydrocarbons conflicts among the leading crude supplying countries. The two headwinds seem to have caused the more than necessary crude unpredictability. Moreover, it was found that the United States output, total requirements, and crude-leaning demand shocks adversely affect the supply unpredictability of the United States and the extractive sectors. The findings depict that crude price instability responded significantly to the contagion caused by crude headwinds. Specifically, the study recorded the effect of uncertainty because of these headwinds beyond financiers' concerns about crude price instability. This study indicates that spillovers do not have meaningful forecast data, igniting critical debates concerning the relevance of the spillover indicator for predicting at minimal sampling occurrence.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Chang, Lei UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Baloch, Zulfiqar Ali UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Saydaliev, Hayot Berk UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Hyder, Mansoor UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Dilanchiev, Azer UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0002-9899-6621 UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-686187
DOI:	10.1016/j.resourpol.2022.102891
Journal or Publication Title:	Resour. Policy
Volume:	78
Date:	2022
Publisher:	ELSEVIER SCI LTD
Place of Publication:	OXFORD
ISSN:	1873-7641
Language:	English
Faculty:	Unspecified
Divisions:	Unspecified
Subjects:	no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language Environmental Studies Multiple languages
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/68618