Universität zu Köln

Helgeson, Broghan (2024). Essays on the Energy Transition — A Modeling Approach. PhD thesis, Universität zu Köln.

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Abstract

Europe aims to reach carbon neutrality by 2050, requiring a shift away from fossil fuels and towards low and zero-carbon energy solutions. Today, this transition is still heavily contingent on the enforcement of strict decarbonization targets and availability of attractive incentive mechanisms. As such, policymakers must face the complex task of balancing climate goals with market competitiveness to implement effective and efficient regulatory frameworks. Mathematical models offer a first-best benchmark to help bridge the gap between the hypothetical and reality. As such, the thesis presented is comprised of three interconnected papers that use quantitative methods based on linear and mixed-integer linear programming to examine cost-minimizing investment and dispatch decisions under varying regulatory scopes. The first paper, “The Role of Electricity in Decarbonizing European Road Transport—Development and Assessment of an Integrated Multi-Sectoral Model”, is co-authored with Jakob Peter and presented in Chapter 2. The paper examines the European road transport sector and the potential of electricity for decarbonization through electric vehicles and power-to-x systems. A multi-sectoral model is developed to analyze the economic impacts of linking the road transport and electricity sectors, considering increased electricity use and flexibility from these technologies. The model evaluates the effects of CO2 reduction targets on technology mixes and trade flows of power-to-x fuels in Europe from 2020 to 2050. By 2050, the results show that electricity and power-to-x fuels are projected to cover 37% and 27% of road transport fuels, respectively, increasing electricity demand by 1200 TWh in Europe. An analysis removing cross-sectoral links shows that decoupling can overestimate system costs and misestimate power-to-x fuel production costs, affecting decarbonization strategies. Chapter 3 presents the second paper, “Europe, the Green Island? Developing an integrated energy system model to assess an energy-independent, CO2-neutral Europe”. The paper quantitatively assesses the European energy system's transformation to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. The DIMENSION model from Chapter 2 is extended to include more sectors and technologies across Europe. It explores two scenarios: Green Island Europe, where all green hydrogen and synthetic fuels are produced domestically, and Green Importer Europe, which allows imports of these fuels. Both scenarios show rapid decarbonization of the electricity sector, with wind and solar capacities tripling from 2019 to 2030, and a significant rise in electricity demand. By 2050, flexibility options like storage, demand-side management, and electric vehicles grow, while transport and industry shift to biofuels and green hydrogen. CO2 shadow prices reach 225 €/tCO2 in 2040 and 559 €/tCO2 in 2050. Green Island Europe sees an electricity consumption increase of over 4000 TWh from 2019 to 2050. Long-term results diverge as Green Importer Europe imports 19% of green hydrogen by 2050, reducing domestic production and enabling other flexibility options. The analysis also examines the scenarios' impacts on consumer and producer surplus and total welfare in European electricity and green hydrogen markets. Finally, Chapter 4 presents the paper “Developing a Model for Consumer Management of Decentralized Options”, co-authored with Cordelia Frings. The paper examines decentralized energy provision and the role of distributed energy resources. The model COMODO (Consumer Management of Decentralized Options), a mixed-integer linear programming model that determines cost-minimal energy provision, is developed to optimize the investment and dispatch over multiple years while considering techno-economic data, regulatory frameworks, and energy market conditions. An example application for four single-family homes in Germany from 2025 to 2045 shows a preference for gas boilers with electric heaters. High-demand households invest in PV systems by 2025, while others delay or avoid investment. A sensitivity analysis of higher carbon pricing shows households switching to fully electrified heat provision, reducing carbon emissions by up to 80% but increasing costs by 3.5% to 5.4%. The model also reveals a strong correlation between the marginal costs of energy provision and retail energy prices.

Item Type:	Thesis (PhD thesis)
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Helgeson, Broghan broghan.helgeson@gmail.com UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-748672
Date:	30 August 2024
Language:	English
Faculty:	Faculty of Management, Economy and Social Sciences
Divisions:	Externe Einrichtungen > An-Institute > Associated Institutes of the Faculty of Management, Economics and Social Sciences > Institute for Energy Economics
Subjects:	Economics
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language Energy System Modeling English Power-to-X English Flexibility Options English Decarbonization English Carbon Neutrality English Linear Programming English Cost Minimization English Optimization Models English Distributed Energy Resources (DER) English Scenario Analyses English Energy Economics English European Energy Markets English Electrification English Sector Coupling English Power-to-Heat English Road Transport English Synthetic Fuels English Green Fuels English GAMS English Dynamic Anticipative Optimization English Carbon Pricing English
Date of oral exam:	30 August 2024
Referee:	Name Academic Title Bettzüge, Marc Oliver Prof. Dr. Ruhnau, Oliver Jun.-Prof. Dr.
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/74867