Universität zu Köln

Barrett, Thomas ORCID: 0000-0001-9017-7376 (2026). With Neighbours Like These Navigating Dependency between the EU and Russia 2000–2022. PhD thesis, Universität zu Köln.

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Abstract

How do countries which are the focus of the European Union’s and Russian Federation’s competing integration projects manage their dependency on these two neighbours? In the 1990s and 2000s, Armenia, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine adopted a strategy which I label strategic hedging: maintaining cooperation with both the EU and Russia, even if the incumbent publicly proclaimed a preference for closer integration with one or the other. Yet from the mid-2000s a competing strategy emerged, which I term a single-vector policy: declaring the goal of close integration with one neighbour while repudiating ties with the other. Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine signed Association Agreements with the EU and subsequently enshrined the goal of EU membership in their constitutions. Armenia, meanwhile, broke off negotiations for an Association Agreement with the EU and joined the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union. This dissertation explores why three of these countries abandoned strategic hedging and why they opted for a pro-EU alignment. We apply a political economy lens focusing on domestic transformation in the four countries and use the framework of social blocs: heterogeneous constellations of sectors, oligarchs, political parties, workers and voters who share certain economic and foreign policy preferences. Sectoral growth decomposition reveals that the structural transformation of the economy since 2000 has empowered new social blocs rooted in emerging sectors of the economy, such as services and agriculture. These emerging social blocs have been essential to the abandonment or preservation of strategic hedging.

Item Type:	Thesis (PhD thesis)
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Barrett, Thomas thomasrobertbarrett@gmail.com https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9017-7376 UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-812602
Series Name:	Studies on the Social and Political Constitution of the Economy
Date:	2026
ISBN:	9783946416418
Language:	English
Faculty:	Faculty of Management, Economy and Social Sciences
Divisions:	Faculty of Management, Economics and Social Sciences > Social Sciences > Political Science > Cologne Center for Comparative Politics
Subjects:	Political science Economics Public administration
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language Ukraine English Georgia English Armenia English Moldova English Russia English Oligarch English Geo economics English
Date of oral exam:	15 June 2026
Referee:	Name Academic Title Kaiser, André Prof. Dr. Trampusch, Christine Prof. Dr. Kroneberg, Clemens Prof. Dr.
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/81260