A cost-efficient expansion of renewable energy sources in the European electricity system - an integrated modelling approach with a particular emphasis on diurnal and seasonal patterns

Golling, Christiane (2012) A cost-efficient expansion of renewable energy sources in the European electricity system - an integrated modelling approach with a particular emphasis on diurnal and seasonal patterns. PhD thesis, Universität zu Köln.

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Abstract

This thesis determines a cost-efficient expansion of electricity generated by renewable energy sources (RES-E) in the European power generation system. It is an integrated modelling approach with a particular emphasis on diurnal and seasonal patterns of renewable energy sources (RES). An integrated modelling approach optimizes the overall European electricity system while comprising fossil, nuclear, and renewable generation as well as storage capacities. The integrated model approach corresponds to a situation in which renewable generation is subject to electricity price signals. In sensitivity scenarios cases of the integrated model approach are compared to situations in which renewable generation is granted priority feed-in and is decoupled from electricity price signals. In addition, the role of different flexibility options, which can be provided by storage capacities and grid expansion are scrutinized. The methodology of the thesis consists of two parts. First, it develops an integrative model approach by extending an existing European electricity model only comprising conventional power generating technologies. Second, an appropriate representation of intermittent RES for electricity market models is established by the determination of corresponding typedays. The typeday modelling takes the spatial correlation of RES and the correlation between wind and solar power into account. Moreover, the typeday modelling captures average dispatch-relevant, diurnal and seasonal RES characteristics such as the level, the variance, and the gradient. The scenario analysis shows that separate developments of renewable and conventional technologies imply several inefficiencies. These increase with higher RES-E penetration. Inefficiencies such as an increased wind power curtailment, an augmented capital turnover, or a higher cumulative installed power generating capacity are revealed and quantified.

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