Universität zu Köln

Keutz, Julian ORCID: 0009-0006-2478-7145 and Kopp, Jan Hendrik ORCID: 0000-0001-7983-6350 (2025). Assessing the impact of take-or-pay rates in long-term contracts for hydrogen imports on a decarbonized European energy system under weather variability. Applied Energy, 389. pp. 1-18. Elsevier. ISSN 0306-2619

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Abstract

[Artikel-Nr.: 125784] Climate-neutral hydrogen is set to play a crucial role in decarbonizing Europe by 2050. Yet, assumptions on hydrogen imports vary widely across existing studies—ranging from fully flexible to fixed import volumes — often neglecting the modalities of future hydrogen trade such as long-term contracts (LTC). This paper addresses this gap by investigating the implications of Take-or-Pay (TOP) rates in hydrogen LTCs on a decarbonized European energy system. We employ a numerical model that optimizes generation capacity, storage and infrastructure investment, and dispatch decisions for the European power and hydrogen sector in 2050, explicitly incorporating TOP obligations in hydrogen LTCs. Our findings show that varying TOP-rates induce significant shifts in cost- minimal infrastructure requirements of the energy system. These shifts underscore the necessity to account for the degree of import flexibility in planning assessments for future energy systems relying on hydrogen imports. Additionally, we show that reduced import flexibility imposed by high TOP rates is balanced predominantly by increased hydrogen storage and withdrawal capacity while import capacity decreases. By simulating dispatch decisions for 35 weather years for the energy systems planned with representative weather, we find that systems planned with high TOP-rates exhibit a lower reliability when weather characteristics during operation differ from the planning stage.

Item Type:	Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Keutz, Julian UNSPECIFIED https://orcid.org/0009-0006-2478-7145 UNSPECIFIED Kopp, Jan Hendrik UNSPECIFIED https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7983-6350 UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-802762
Identification Number:	10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.125784
Journal or Publication Title:	Applied Energy
Volume:	389
Page Range:	pp. 1-18
Number of Pages:	18
Date:	27 March 2025
Publisher:	Elsevier
ISSN:	0306-2619
Language:	English
Faculty:	Faculty of Management, Economy and Social Sciences
Divisions:	Faculty of Management, Economics and Social Sciences > Economics > Microeconomics, Institutions and markets > Professorship for Energy and Environmental Economics
Subjects:	Economics
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language Energy system modeling ; Hydrogen infrastructure ; Hydrogen storage ; Hydrogen long-term-contracts ; Hydrogen and electricity markets English
['eprint_fieldname_oa_funders' not defined]:	Publikationsfonds UzK
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/80276