Universität zu Köln

Knappe, Simon, Wied, Dominik ORCID: 0000-0003-4252-2918 and Jansen, Tobias ORCID: 0009-0007-2338-6590 (2026). Unveiling Spatial Dependencies — Investigating the Determinants of Firm Exit in Germany. Journal of Regional Science, 66 (2). pp. 500-515. Wiley. ISSN 0022-4146

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Abstract

The determinants of firm exit in Germany, with a particular focus on the role of spatial dependence, are investigated. Using administrative microdata, a baseline probit model confirms the importance of internal firm characteristics, most notably firm size, growth dynamics, and legal form, in explaining exit probabilities. Descriptive spatial analysis based on Global Moran's I statistics reveals substantial geographic heterogeneity. To account for these spatial patterns, spatial probit models are estimated separately for each county, making the analysis computationally feasible. These estimations indicate that spatial dependence is present in a meaningful share of regions, driven primarily by unobserved regional conditions rather than observable firm characteristics. While the core internal determinants remain robust across specifications, the significance of the spatial autoregressive parameter demonstrates that firm exit is influenced not only by firm-level attributes but also by the broader economic environment in which firms operate. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating spatial context into empirical analyses of firm survival.

Item Type:	Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Knappe, Simon UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Wied, Dominik UNSPECIFIED https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4252-2918 UNSPECIFIED Jansen, Tobias UNSPECIFIED https://orcid.org/0009-0007-2338-6590 UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-810014
Identification Number:	10.1111/jors.70042
Journal or Publication Title:	Journal of Regional Science
Volume:	66
Number:	2
Page Range:	pp. 500-515
Number of Pages:	16
Date:	22 March 2026
Publisher:	Wiley
ISSN:	0022-4146
Language:	English
Faculty:	Faculty of Management, Economy and Social Sciences
Divisions:	Faculty of Management, Economics and Social Sciences > Economics > Econometrics and Statistics > Professorship for Statistics and Econometrics
Subjects:	Social sciences Economics
['eprint_fieldname_oa_funders' not defined]:	Publikationsfonds UzK
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/81001