Universität zu Köln

Wohland, Jan ORCID: 0000-0001-8336-0009, Omrani, Nour Eddine, Keenlyside, Noel and Witthaut, Dirk ORCID: 0000-0002-3623-5341 (2019). Significant multidecadal variability in German wind energy generation. Wind Energy Sci., 4 (3). S. 515 - 527. GOTTINGEN: COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH. ISSN 2366-7451

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Abstract

Wind energy has seen large deployment and substantial cost reductions over the last decades. Further ambitious upscaling is urgently needed to keep the goals of the Paris Agreement within reach. While the variability in wind power generation poses a challenge to grid integration, much progress in quantifying, understanding and managing it has been made over the last years. Despite this progress, relevant modes of variability in energy generation have been overlooked. Based on long-term reanalyses of the 20th century, we demonstrate that multidecadal wind variability has significant impact on wind energy generation in Germany. These modes of variability can not be detected in modern reanalyses that are typically used for energy applications because modern reanalyses are too short (around 40 years of data). We show that energy generation over a 20-year wind park lifetime varies by around +/- 5% and the summer-to-winter ratio varies by around +/- 15 %. Moreover, ERA-Interim-based annual and winter generations are biased high as the period 1979-2010 overlaps with a multidecadal maximum of wind energy generation. The induced variations in wind park lifetime revenues are on the order of 10% with direct implications for profitability. Our results suggest rethinking energy system design as an ongoing and dynamic process. Revenues and seasonalities change on a multidecadal timescale, and so does the optimum energy system layout.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Wohland, Jan UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0001-8336-0009 UNSPECIFIED Omrani, Nour Eddine UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Keenlyside, Noel UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Witthaut, Dirk UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0002-3623-5341 UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-141466
DOI:	10.5194/wes-4-515-2019
Journal or Publication Title:	Wind Energy Sci.
Volume:	4
Number:	3
Page Range:	S. 515 - 527
Date:	2019
Publisher:	COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
Place of Publication:	GOTTINGEN
ISSN:	2366-7451
Language:	English
Faculty:	Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences
Divisions:	Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences > Department of Physics > Institute for Theoretical Physics
Subjects:	no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language NORTH-ATLANTIC OSCILLATION; FUTURE CHANGES; CLIMATE-CHANGE; ELECTRICITY; REANALYSIS; PERFORMANCE; EUROPE; SYSTEM; IMPACT; NEEDS Multiple languages Green & Sustainable Science & Technology Multiple languages
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/14146