Universität zu Köln

Weber, Juliane, Heinrichs, Heidi Ursula ORCID: 0000-0001-9536-9465, Gillessen, Bastian, Schumann, Diana, Hoersch, Jonas, Brown, Tom and Witthaut, Dirk ORCID: 0000-0002-3623-5341 (2019). Counter-intuitive behaviour of energy system models under CO2 caps and prices. Energy, 170. S. 22 - 31. OXFORD: PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD. ISSN 1873-6785

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Abstract

The mitigation of climate change requires a fundamental transition of the energy system. Affordability, reliability and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions constitute central but often conflicting targets for this energy transition. Against this context, we reveal limitations and counter-intuitive results in the model-based optimization of energy systems, which are often applied for policy advice. When system costs are minimized in the presence of a CO2 cap, efficiency gains free a part of the CO2 cap, allowing cheap technologies to replace expensive low-emission technologies. Even more striking results are observed in a setup where emissions are minimized in the presence of a budget constraint. Increasing CO2 prices can oust clean, but expensive technologies out of the system, and eventually lead to higher emissions. These effects robustly occur in models of different scope and complexity. Hence, extreme care is necessary in the application of energy system optimization models to avoid misleading policy advice. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Weber, Juliane UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Heinrichs, Heidi Ursula UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0001-9536-9465 UNSPECIFIED Gillessen, Bastian UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Schumann, Diana UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Hoersch, Jonas UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Brown, Tom UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Witthaut, Dirk UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0002-3623-5341 UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-155435
DOI:	10.1016/j.energy.2018.12.052
Journal or Publication Title:	Energy
Volume:	170
Page Range:	S. 22 - 31
Date:	2019
Publisher:	PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
Place of Publication:	OXFORD
ISSN:	1873-6785
Language:	English
Faculty:	Unspecified
Divisions:	Unspecified
Subjects:	no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT; PHASE-OUT; IMPACTS; NEEDS; PART Multiple languages Thermodynamics; Energy & Fuels Multiple languages
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/15543