Universität zu Köln

Knaut, Andreas, Tode, Christian, Lindenberger, Dietmar, Malischek, Raimund, Paulus, Simon and Wagner, Johannes (2016). The reference forecast of the German energy transition-An outlook on electricity markets. Energy Policy, 92. S. 477 - 492. OXFORD: ELSEVIER SCI LTD. ISSN 1873-6777

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Abstract

The enactment of the Energy Concept by the German Government in 2010 set ambitious targets for the future energy transition in Germany. The most prominent goals include a greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction of the economy and an increase in the share of renewable energy in the whole energy sector. Since the long run effects of these policy measures are hard to assess, science-based policy evaluation methods are needed to identify weak points and areas with a need for action. This paper presents the results of the German Energy Reference Forecast with a focus on the electricity sector. It is based on an investment and dispatch model for the European electricity sector over the planning horizon of the 'Energiewende' up to 2050, with an emphasis on the time period up to 2030. We find that almost all targets of the German 'Energiewende' are not reached, for the case in which no further measures are undertaken. In particular reductions in GHG emissions fall short to the target value. Contrary to the negative results, e.g., regarding GHG-emissions as well as gross electricity consumption, generation from renewable energy sources will exceed the policy's target value. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Knaut, Andreas UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Tode, Christian UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Lindenberger, Dietmar UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Malischek, Raimund UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Paulus, Simon UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Wagner, Johannes UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-277431
DOI:	10.1016/j.enpol.2016.02.010
Journal or Publication Title:	Energy Policy
Volume:	92
Page Range:	S. 477 - 492
Date:	2016
Publisher:	ELSEVIER SCI LTD
Place of Publication:	OXFORD
ISSN:	1873-6777
Language:	English
Faculty:	Unspecified
Divisions:	Unspecified
Subjects:	no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language RENEWABLE ENERGY Multiple languages Economics; Energy & Fuels; Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies Multiple languages
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/27743