Universität zu Köln

Asare, Ernest O., Tompkins, Adrian M., Amekudzi, Leonard K. and Ermert, Volker (2016). A breeding site model for regional, dynamical malaria simulations evaluated using in situ temporary ponds observations. Geospatial Health, 11. S. 56 - 67. NAPLES: UNIV NAPLES FEDERICO II. ISSN 1970-7096

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Abstract

Daily observations of potential mosquito developmental habitats in a suburb of Kumasi in central Ghana reveal a strong variability in their water persistence times, which ranged between 11 and 81 days. The persistence of the ponds was strongly tied with rainfall, location and size of the puddles. A simple power-law relationship is found to fit the relationship between the average pond depth and area well. A prognostic water balance model is derived that describes the temporal evolution of the pond area and depth, incorporating the power-law geometrical relation. Pond area increases in response to rainfall, while evaporation and infiltration act as sink terms. Based on a range of evaluation metrics, the prognostic model is judged to provide a good representation of the pond coverage evolution at most sites. Finally, we demonstrate that the prognostic equation can be generalised and equally applied to a grid-cell to derive a fractional pond coverage, and thus can be implemented in spatially distributed models for relevant vector-borne diseases such as malaria.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Asare, Ernest O. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Tompkins, Adrian M. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Amekudzi, Leonard K. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Ermert, Volker UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-290052
DOI:	10.4081/gh.2016.390
Journal or Publication Title:	Geospatial Health
Volume:	11
Page Range:	S. 56 - 67
Date:	2016
Publisher:	UNIV NAPLES FEDERICO II
Place of Publication:	NAPLES
ISSN:	1970-7096
Language:	English
Faculty:	Unspecified
Divisions:	Unspecified
Subjects:	no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language ANOPHELES-GAMBIAE-S.S.; WESTERN KENYA HIGHLANDS; LARVAL HABITATS; MOSQUITO LARVAE; AQUATIC STAGES; SPATIAL-DISTRIBUTION; VILLAGE; TRANSMISSION; VOLUME; GHANA Multiple languages Health Care Sciences & Services; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health Multiple languages
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/29005