Universität zu Köln

Solich, Barbara (2010). Increasing Malaria Risk in Eastern Africa. A Multi-Causal Analysis. Masters thesis, Universität zu Köln.

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Abstract

Global climatic change has been analysed as a key driving force of social-ecological change in the coming decades. The increasing spread of Malaria due to warming is named as a major future problem of East Africa. In contrast to much of northern and southern Africa more humid conditions are expected for countries like Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania. Next to changing precipitation patterns and a profound snow melt on the glaciers of Mt. Kilimandjaro and Mt Kenya, warming and potentially higher rates of precipitation may bring about higher rates of Malaria infection. In fact, the empirically recorded cases of Malaria infections in the region seemingly support this argument. Infection rates have been constantly rising over the past two decades and many areas that had not been affected by Malaria for many decades, now have seasonal Malaria epidemics. It is especially the densely settled zone between 1500m and 2000m – the highly fertile Kenyan highlands – which seem to be affected most. Hence many indicators suggest a strong correlation between climatic change and the increase in Malaria. Barbara Solich shows that underlying social-ecological processes are much more complex than that. In a multi-causal analysis she is able to show that a number of other factors may have even a greater effect on Malaria rates than climatic change. In order to present her argument systematically Solich first of all gives a short out-line of the state of research. Unfortunately most research on increasing Malaria rates in East Africa is concentrating on one explanatory variable only. Also reliable long term data is rare. Solich presents her critique of current research foci and discusses a number of drivers that increase Malaria infections. She roughly differentiates between natural and socio- economic/political drivers – indicating a heuristic basis used in this identification. Among the natural drivers, climate change, land-use and cover changes, and drug resistance have been analysed, while demographic changes, poverty, and inadequate political responses have been identified as socio-economic/political drivers of the spread of Malaria in the region. Based on the analysis, she models the inter-connections between the factors and heir influence on various stages of the malaria infectious cycle. Exemplary analysis of the Kenyan Highlands illustrates this interplay of factors and strengthens Solich’s argument for further studies concerning Malaria-risk multiple causation. Michael J. Casimir

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters thesis)
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Solich, Barbara UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-41722
Series Name at the University of Cologne:	Kölner ethnologische Beiträge
Volume:	35
Date:	2010
ISSN:	1611-4531
Language:	English
Faculty:	Faculty of Arts and Humanities
Divisions:	Faculty of Arts and Humanities > Fächergruppe 4: Außereuropäische Sprachen, Kulturen und Gesellschaften > Institut für Ethnologie
Subjects:	Customs, etiquette, folklore Medical sciences Medicine
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language MA theses , East Africa , Malaria , Risk , Geographic distribution , Environmental change English Magisterarbeit , Ostafrika , Malaria , Risiko , Geographische Verteilung , Umweltwandel German
Date of oral exam:	2010
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/4172