Universität zu Köln

Timpson, Adrian, Colledge, Sue, Crema, Enrico ORCID: 0000-0001-6727-5138, Edinborough, Kevan ORCID: 0000-0002-7668-0749, Kerig, Tim, Manning, Katie ORCID: 0000-0002-8512-156X, Thomas, Mark G. and Shennan, Stephen (2014). Reconstructing regional population fluctuations in the European Neolithic using radiocarbon dates: a new case-study using an improved method. J. Archaeol. Sci., 52. S. 549 - 558. LONDON: ACADEMIC PRESS LTD- ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD. ISSN 1095-9238

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Abstract

In a previous study we presented a new method that used summed probability distributions (SPD) of radiocarbon dates as a proxy for population levels, and Monte-Carlo simulation to test the significance of the observed fluctuations in the context of uncertainty in the calibration curve and archaeological sampling. The method allowed us to identify periods of significant short-term population change, caveated with the fact that around 5% of these periods were false positives. In this study we present an improvement to the method by applying a criterion to remove these false positives from both the simulated and observed distributions, resulting in a substantial improvement to both its sensitivity and specificity. We also demonstrate that the method is extremely robust in the face of small sample sizes. Finally we apply this improved method to radiocarbon datasets from 12 European regions, covering the period 8000-4000 BP. As in our previous study, the results reveal a boom-bust pattern for most regions, with population levels rising rapidly after the local arrival of farming, followed by a crash to levels much lower than the peak. The prevalence of this phenomenon, combined with the dissimilarity and lack of synchronicity in the general shapes of the regional SPDs, supports the hypothesis of endogenous causes. (c) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Timpson, Adrian UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Colledge, Sue UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Crema, Enrico UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0001-6727-5138 UNSPECIFIED Edinborough, Kevan UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0002-7668-0749 UNSPECIFIED Kerig, Tim UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Manning, Katie UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0002-8512-156X UNSPECIFIED Thomas, Mark G. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Shennan, Stephen UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-421807
DOI:	10.1016/j.jas.2014.08.011
Journal or Publication Title:	J. Archaeol. Sci.
Volume:	52
Page Range:	S. 549 - 558
Date:	2014
Publisher:	ACADEMIC PRESS LTD- ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
Place of Publication:	LONDON
ISSN:	1095-9238
Language:	English
Faculty:	Unspecified
Divisions:	Unspecified
Subjects:	no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language PROBABILITY-DISTRIBUTIONS; CALIBRATION CURVES Multiple languages Anthropology; Archaeology; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary Multiple languages
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/42180