Nick, Sebastian and Thoenes, Stefan (2014). What drives natural gas prices? A structural VAR approach. Energy Econ., 45. S. 517 - 528. AMSTERDAM: ELSEVIER. ISSN 1873-6181

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Abstract

In this study, we develop a structural vector autoregressive model (VAR) for the German natural gas market. Our setup allows us to analyze the determinants of the natural gas price in a comprehensive framework. In particular, we illustrate the usefulness of our approach by disentangling the effects of different fundamental influences on gas prices during three recent supply interruptions: the Russian-Ukrainian gas dispute of January 2009, the Libyan civil war in 2011 and the withheld Russian exports in February 2012. Our results show that the natural gas price is affected by temperature, storage and supply shortfalls in the short term, while the long-term development is closely tied to both crude oil and coal prices, capturing the economic climate and the substitution relationship between the different energy commodities. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Item Type: Journal Article
Creators:
CreatorsEmailORCIDORCID Put Code
Nick, SebastianUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Thoenes, StefanUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
URN: urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-429615
DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2014.08.010
Journal or Publication Title: Energy Econ.
Volume: 45
Page Range: S. 517 - 528
Date: 2014
Publisher: ELSEVIER
Place of Publication: AMSTERDAM
ISSN: 1873-6181
Language: English
Faculty: Unspecified
Divisions: Unspecified
Subjects: no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:
KeywordsLanguage
CRUDE-OIL; MARKET INTEGRATION; EUROPEAN SECURITY; SUPPLY SHOCKS; INFERENCE; DYNAMICS; LNGMultiple languages
EconomicsMultiple languages
URI: http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/42961

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