Universität zu Köln

Becker, M., Karpytchev, M. and Lennartz-Sassinek, S. (2014). Long-term sea level trends: Natural or anthropogenic? Geophys. Res. Lett., 41 (15). S. 5571 - 5581. WASHINGTON: AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION. ISSN 1944-8007

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Abstract

Detection and attribution of human influence on sea level rise are important topics that have not yet been explored in depth. We question whether the sea level changes (SLC) over the past century were natural in origin. SLC exhibit power law long-term correlations. By estimating Hurst exponent through Detrended Fluctuation Analysis and by applying statistics of Lennartz and Bunde [], we search the lower bounds of statistically significant external sea level trends in longest tidal records worldwide. We provide statistical evidences that the observed SLC, at global and regional scales, is beyond its natural internal variability. The minimum anthropogenic sea level trend (MASLT) contributes to the observed sea level rise more than 50% in New York, Baltimore, San Diego, Marseille, and Mumbai. A MASLT is about 1mm/yr in global sea level reconstructions that is more than half of the total observed sea level trend during the XXth century.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Becker, M. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Karpytchev, M. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Lennartz-Sassinek, S. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-431927
DOI:	10.1002/2014GL061027
Journal or Publication Title:	Geophys. Res. Lett.
Volume:	41
Number:	15
Page Range:	S. 5571 - 5581
Date:	2014
Publisher:	AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
Place of Publication:	WASHINGTON
ISSN:	1944-8007
Language:	English
Faculty:	Unspecified
Divisions:	Unspecified
Subjects:	no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language LAND SUBSIDENCE; RISE; ATLANTIC; COAST Multiple languages Geosciences, Multidisciplinary Multiple languages
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/43192