Universität zu Köln

Karremann, M. K., Pinto, J. G., von Bomhard, P. J. and Klawa, M. (2014). On the clustering of winter storm loss events over Germany. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14 (8). S. 2041 - 2053. GOTTINGEN: COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH. ISSN 1561-8633

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Abstract

During the last decades, several windstorm series hit Europe leading to large aggregated losses. Such storm series are examples of serial clustering of extreme cyclones, presenting a considerable risk for the insurance industry. Clustering of events and return periods of storm series for Germany are quantified based on potential losses using empirical models. Two reanalysis data sets and observations from German weather stations are considered for 30 winters. Histograms of events exceeding selected return levels (1-, 2- and 5-year) are derived. Return periods of historical storm series are estimated based on the Poisson and the negative binomial distributions. Over 4000 years of general circulation model (GCM) simulations forced with current climate conditions are analysed to provide a better assessment of historical return periods. Estimations differ between distributions, for example 40 to 65 years for the 1990 series. For such less frequent series, estimates obtained with the Poisson distribution clearly deviate from empirical data. The negative binomial distribution provides better estimates, even though a sensitivity to return level and data set is identified. The consideration of GCM data permits a strong reduction of uncertainties. The present results support the importance of considering explicitly clustering of losses for an adequate risk assessment for economical applications.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Karremann, M. K. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Pinto, J. G. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED von Bomhard, P. J. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Klawa, M. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-452567
DOI:	10.5194/nhess-14-2041-2014
Journal or Publication Title:	Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.
Volume:	14
Number:	8
Page Range:	S. 2041 - 2053
Date:	2014
Publisher:	COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
Place of Publication:	GOTTINGEN
ISSN:	1561-8633
Language:	English
Faculty:	Unspecified
Divisions:	Unspecified
Subjects:	no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language CLIMATE CONDITIONS; FUTURE CLIMATE; RETURN PERIODS; WIND STORMS; MODEL; CIRCULATION; IMPACTS; REANALYSIS; CYCLONES; RESPECT Multiple languages Geosciences, Multidisciplinary; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences; Water Resources Multiple languages
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/45256