Universität zu Köln

Paulus, Moritz (2012). The Economics of International Coal Markets. PhD thesis, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universität zu Köln.

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Abstract

In the scope of four related essays this thesis analyses the Chinese domestic coal sector and coal trade policies and their respective impact on international steam coal trade economics. In particular, the thesis investigates the role of domestic transport infrastructure investment policies as well as Chinese coal export and import controls and the potential exertion of market power through such trade instruments. For this purpose, several spatial equilibrium models have been developed that enable simulation runs to compare different policy scenarios. These models also permit ex-post analyses to empirically test hypotheses of non-competitive market conduct of individual players under the assumption of Cournot behaviour. These model-based analyses yield, among others, the following findings: If coal is converted into electricity early in the Chinese energy supply chain, worldwide marginal costs of supply are substantially lower than if coal is transported via railway. This can reduce China's dependence on international imports significantly. Allocation of welfare changes, particularly in favour of Chinese consumers while rents of international producers decrease. If not only seaborne trade but also interactions and feedbacks between domestic coal markets and international trade markets are accounted for, trade volumes and prices of a China - Indonesia duopoly fit the real market outcome best in 2008. Real Chinese export quotas have been consistent with simulated exports under a Cournot-Nash strategy. Uncertainties with regard to future Chinese coal demand and coal sector policies generate significant costs for international investors and lead to a spatial and temporal reallocation of mining and infrastructure investments. The potential exertion of Chinese demand side market power would further reduce the overall investment activity of exporters.